Analyst Who Predicted Bitcoin’s 2018 Lows Says Another Drop Is Likely

Bitcoin Price

Analyst Who Predicted Bitcoin’s 2018 Lows Says Another Drop Is Likely


  • Bitcoin has undergone a strong drop since the highs of $19,500 seen last week
  • A historically accurate analyst says that further losses are likely for the cryptocurrency
  • The analyst shared a chart showing that Bitcoin is likely in the midst of trading in a dead cat bounce prior to further losses
  • He cited the Elliot Wave form of technical analysis, which predicts that markets move in predictable waves.

Bitcoin Could Drop Toward $15,000

Bitcoin has undergone a strong drop since the highs of $19,500 seen last week. Even after a strong recovery from the lows, the leading cryptocurrency trades for $17,600, far from those highs.

Analysts are mixed over what this correction means for the Bitcoin bull market: some think that the drop was a necessary correction before a stronger move higher. Others think that the drop is the start of a bigger correction that will likely end in the coin falling toward the $12,000-14,000 technical region.

A historically accurate analyst is currently leaning toward the latter option.

The trader recently shared a chart showing that Bitcoin is likely in the midst of trading in a dead cat bounce prior to further losses. This next drop, the analyst suggests, could bring the cryptocurrency toward the $15,000 region.

The chart below was shared along with this assertion. The chart shows Bitcoin’s recent price action, along with the assertion that it may be trading in an Elliot Wave pattern that may take it to $15,000:

“you love to see it, looking for another pop higher into 18k before opening some shorts. to me this is a clear abc up after a 5 wave decline, and complacency looks to be kicking in.”

The trader that shared this chart is the same one that in the middle of 2018 predicted that Bitcoin would fall as low as $3,200. He was proven almost exactly correct when the coin bottomed on top exchanges at $3,150 just months later.

Image

Chart of BTC's price action over the past week with an Elliot Wave analysis by historically accurate analyst Benjamin (@SmartContracter on Twitter)
Source: BTCUSD from TradingView.com

Not the Only One That Thinks So

This analyst is far from the only one expecting a further drop.

Bob Loukas, a crypto cycle analyst, noted that the cryptocurrency regularly fell by 30% last market cycle, prior to moving to new highs:

“Most have a short memory. Remember in Jan 2017 just shy of #Bitcoin ATH’s, boom 34% decline. The 2 months later a sharp rally, new ATH’s, and double boom 34% decline. Never a one way street.”

Bitcoin has only dropped by around 15% from its highs. A full-blown 30% correction would mean that it drops to the $14,000 region.

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Analyst Who Predicted Bitcoin's 2018 Lows Says Another Drop Is Likely

Bitcoin Could Be Mirroring This Extremely Bullish Gold Fractal from the 1970s

Bitcoin

Bitcoin Could Be Mirroring This Extremely Bullish Gold Fractal from the 1970s


  • Bitcoin is currently caught within a strong upswing following its recent selloff
  • Bulls are pushing the crypto towards $18,000 as they move to erase its recent losses
  • Where it trends next will depend largely on how sustainable this ongoing move higher is
  • One investor is now noting that a gold fractal from the 1970s seems to indicate that this selloff could be followed by a powerful push higher in the days and weeks ahead

Bitcoin and the entire cryptocurrency market are currently caught within a strong uptrend that has come about just a day after the cryptocurrency witnessed a massive inflow of selling pressure that caused it to erase a good portion of its recent gains.

Where it trends next will likely depend largely on whether or not buyers can push it back above $18,000. Reclaiming this level could provide a strong new support base to grow upon.

It could confirm a “V-shaped” recovery from its recent lows, potentially allowing it to see a strong upswing that pushes it beyond its previous all-time highs in the upper-$19,000 region.

It could also confirm that a gold fractal from the 1970s is in play, allowing it to see some significant upside.

Bitcoin Shows Signs of Strength as Bulls Target $18,000 

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading up just over 3% at its current price of $17,700. This marks a serious upswing from its recent lows of $16,400.

These lows were set at the bottom of the recent market-wide selloff, which came about shortly after BTC faced a rejection around its previous all-time highs of $19,500.

The selling pressure seen here drove it significantly lower and could indicate that further downside is imminent.

This move was also perpetuated by a surge in regulatory fears due to recent comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin.

Prominent Investor: BTC’s Latest Dip Could Confirm Bullish 1970s Gold Fractal 

Su Zhu, a prominent cryptocurrency investor and the CEO of Three Arrows Capital, explained in a recent tweet that the ongoing Bitcoin dip could be bullish because it puts in play a gold fractal from the 1970s that suggests immense upside is imminent.

“Any continued dump in BTC would be extremely bullish as it would reveal we are following the gold fractal from the 1970s, as per below by Paul Tudor Jones–the legendary macro investor who successfully used fractals to predict the 1980s stock market supercycle.”

Bitcoin

Bitcoin’s upcoming weekly candle close should provide some insights into where it is trending in the mid-term.

A close above $18,000 could put the trend back into bulls’ control for the week ahead.

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Pricing data from TradingView.

Ethereum’s Technical Outlook Strengthens as Market-Wide Recovery Begins

Ethereum

Altcoin Price

Ethereum’s Technical Outlook Strengthens as Market-Wide Recovery Begins


  • Ethereum has been closely tracking Bitcoin’s price action throughout the past few days and weeks, which has led it to see some immense turbulence as of late
  • Just two days ago, the benchmark cryptocurrency faced a rejection at its all-time highs that resulted in it reeling from $19,500 to $16,400
  • This selloff was the most intense one seen since this uptrend first got started a handful of weeks ago
  • Where it trends next will depend almost entirely on whether or not bulls can extend the ongoing rebound
  • One analyst does believe that Ethereum is in a position to rally higher in the near-term, as it is now looking strong from a technical perspective

Ethereum and the entire crypto market have witnessed some of the most intense turbulence seen in weeks over the past couple of days.

Bitcoin’s rejection at its all-time highs, coupled with fear regarding a new wave of regulations, sent the entire market reeling lower, with ETH plunging from its recent $620 highs to lows of $490.

Where the market trends in the mid-term will depend largely on whether or not bulls can extend the ongoing rebound that is taking place at this moment.

One trader expects further upside, noting that the cryptocurrency is looking increasingly strong from a technical perspective.

Ethereum Rallies Higher Alongside Bitcoin 

At the time of writing, Ethereum is trading up over 4% at its current price of $539, which marks a massive rebound from its multi-day lows of $490 set at the bottom of the recent selloff.

The strength seen in the time following the recent market-wide selloff is a positive sign, as it indicates that the major digital assets were all brought into oversold territory.

ETH may face some resistance around $540, but a firm break above this level could lead it to see some significant upside.

Analyst Claims ETH is Poised to See Further Upside

One trader explained that Ethereum is now looking technically strong and may be well-positioned to see further upside in the days and weeks ahead.

He does note that he’d like to see one more sweep of the range lows to make a sustained push higher in the days and weeks ahead.

“Back to blue. I bought spot ETH at $500 and I’m now long on lev. I’d still like to see another sweep of the lows, just hoping to not get chopped. Signals have been strong enough from this chart that it warrants me being long when we’re blue.”

Ethereum

Image Courtesy of Cold Blooded Shiller. Source: ETHUSD on TradingView.

The coming weekend should shine some light on the present state of the market, and provide valuable insights into where Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other major crypto-assets will trend in the mid-term.

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Charts from TradingView.

This Pattern Suggests Bitcoin Could Plummet to $12,000 Before Uptrend Continues

Bitcoin

Bitcoin

This Pattern Suggests Bitcoin Could Plummet to $12,000 Before Uptrend Continues


  • Bitcoin and the entire crypto market are showing some signs of strength on this relatively quiet morning for the markets
  • Following a brief bout of trading below $17,000, the benchmark cryptocurrency has firmly reclaimed this price region
  • It is now attempting to push higher as bears lose steam, which could be a sign that its recent $16,400 lows are a long-term bottom
  • Where the market trends in the mid-term will depend entirely on Bitcoin and whether or not it can stabilize
  • One trader is now pointing to a pattern that indicates BTC could soon see a strong decline that sends it to $12,000 before it rebounds

Bitcoin and the rest of the crypto market are currently caught within a bout of consolidation following the recent market-wide decline.

This tempered trading favors bulls, as BTC and most altcoins have pushed higher over the past day.

Where the entire market trends next will depend on whether or not Bitcoin can confirm $17,000 as a long-term support level.

However, one trader is now musing a potential scenario in which BTC reels as low as $12,000 before finding enough support to begin journeying past the resistance that exists around its all-time highs.

Bitcoin Gains Momentum Following Recent Selloff 

Bitcoin is now trading up nearly $1,000 from its multi-day lows, with the recent dip to $16,400 clearly marks a knee-jerk reaction to a culmination of a few factors seen as potentially bearish.

At the time of writing, BTC is trading up just under 2% at its current price of $17,420. This marks a notable decline from its recent highs of $19,500.

The rejection at these highs, coupled with fears of a new wave of regulations, sent the price tumbling lower, but this fear seems to be subsiding.

Trader Indicates Move to $12,000 Could Be Imminent

One trader explained in a recent tweet that Bitcoin could be on the cusp of reeling down towards $12,000 before it can fund enough support to climb back up towards its all-time highs in the upper-$19,000 region.

“Three notes: – this is just a scenario, one of many, describing the most savage correction I could envision – probabilities on this? no idea, lots of other scenarios to consider, too early to tell – don’t bet your bank to the downside on this, seems a lot of people want this,” he said while pointing to the below chart.

Bitcoin

Image Courtesy of Bitcoin Jack. Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.

The coming few days should provide insight into where the entire market will trend next. A sustained bout of trading above $17,000 could result in Bitcoin navigating back up towards its all-time highs.

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Charts from TradingView.

Breaking Down the Effect of Bitcoin’s $3,000 Drop on the Futures Market

Bitcoin Price

Breaking Down the Effect of Bitcoin’s $3,000 Drop on the Futures Market


  • Bitcoin has undergone a strong drop since peaking at $19,500 just days ago
  • The coin currently trades at $17,000 as of this article’s writing
  • Analysis compiled by Coinalyze found that over the course of the past few days, $1 billion worth of open interest has been wiped from leading Bitcoin futures exchanges
  • This was accompanied

How the Strong Bitcoin Drop Affected the Futures Market For BTC

Bitcoin has undergone a strong drop since peaking at $19,500 just days ago. The leading cryptocurrency currently trades for $17,000, far below the highs.

The drop came in a short period of time, with liquidations pushing Bitcoin dramatically lower in a wave. The issue was that many market participants were overleveraged, meaning that a small correction triggered liquidations and stop losses, resulting in a rapid cascade lower.

Analysis compiled by Coinalyze found that over the course of the past few days, $1 billion worth of open interest has been wiped from leading Bitcoin futures exchanges.

This was also marked by a spike in trading volume, of $66 billion on futures exchanges and $7 billion on spot exchanges.

These two data points in tandem suggest that the recent correction marked a needed correction in the Bitcoin market to ensure that derivatives players were not getting too far overleveraged.

After the strong correction, the funding rates of top Bitcoin futures markets have reset. The funding rate is the rate that long positions pay short positions on a recurring basis to make sure the price of the future stays in line with the spot market.

According to ByBt, a crypto derivatives tracker, the funding rates of most leading exchanges have reset to the baseline of 0.01% per eight hours. Further, on OKEx in particular, the funding rates of many pairs have actually trended into a negative region, suggesting an increasing number of short takers.

Bitcoin may revert higher if there continues to be low and even negative interest rates and if consolidation takes place.

Par for the Course

Many say that this correction is par for the course in that it should be expected.

Bob Loukas, a long-time Bitcoin investor and macro analyst, recently pointed out that the previous bull run was punctuated with drawdowns similar to the one taking place now:

“Most have a short memory. Remember in Jan 2017 just shy of #Bitcoin ATH’s, boom 34% decline. The 2 months later a sharp rally, new ATH’s, and double boom 34% decline. Never a one way street.”

Countless others in the space have corroborated this, arguing that it is actually healthy for bullish markets to pull back.

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Macro Analysis Predicts Bitcoin Has Begun Rally Toward $100k

Here’s Why Bitcoin May Need to Tap $13,000 Before Continuing Its Uptrend

Bitcoin

Here’s Why Bitcoin May Need to Tap $13,000 Before Continuing Its Uptrend


  • Bitcoin has been spiraling lower ever since it tapped its all-time highs within the mid-$19,000 region
  • There are a few factors driving this move lower, including selling pressure stemming from the rejection, fear regarding a regulatory crackdown in the U.S., and withdraws on OKEx resuming
  • The confluence of these factors has created a perfect storm for bears, and they appear to be taking full advantage of it
  • One trader believes that Bitcoin has quite a way to fall before it finds any significant support and begins pushing higher
  • He is specifically watching for a move down towards $13,000, noting that it still appears to be “way overextended”

Bitcoin has done a full 180-degree turn, with the cryptocurrency’s previous upwards momentum now degrading as bears aim at sending it significantly lower.

The selling pressure seen as a result of the rejection at $19,500 is undoubtedly what sparked this movement, but a couple of other factors have perpetuated it.

Recent comments from the U.S. Treasury Secretary regarding a crackdown on private crypto wallets spooked investors and caused the crypto to see a sudden inflow of sell-side pressure.

Furthermore, OKEx reopening withdraws has also coincided with this dip, signaling that their users are possibly taking profits off the table.

Bitcoin Shows Signs of Weakness as It Breaks $17,000

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading down just over 1% at its current price of $16,900. This is around the price at which it has been trading throughout the past day.

The support previously holding BTC above $17,000 appears to be evaporating, which could be a sign that downside is imminent in the near-term.

If this level flips into resistance, it may put Bitcoin’s price action firmly in bulls’ control.

Analyst Claims Move to $13,000 Could Be Imminent

While sharing his thoughts on Bitcoin’s price action, one trader explained that a move towards $13,000 could be imminent in the near-term.

He notes that it may first consolidate above its weekly support around $16,200, with this level eventually breaking and opening the gates for an even larger move lower.

“Differently from ETH, BTC looks way over extended from the weekly 21EMA, still far from interesting support. My ideal entry would be the outlined major support @ 13k’s. Currently we might hold the 16213 weekly support, then head lower for an ABC correction.”

Bitcoin

Image Courtesy of Wolf. Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.

Over the coming few days, Bitcoin’s price action should provide serious insights into the aggregated market’s outlook in the days and weeks ahead.

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Charts from TradingView.

Here’s the Key Level Ethereum Must Claim to Rally Towards $800

Altcoin Price

Here’s the Key Level Ethereum Must Claim to Rally Towards $800


  • Ethereum’s price has been closely tracking that of Bitcoin as of late, which has caused the cryptocurrency to see some notable losses
  • It has been defending $500 throughout the course of its recent push lower. This comes as Bitcoin breaks below $17,000 and begins seeing accelerating downwards momentum
  • If $500 becomes a strong base of support for ETH, it could help propel the cryptocurrency significantly higher in the days and weeks ahead
  • A sustained decline beneath this level, however, could open the gates for it to see significantly further losses in the days and weeks ahead
  • One trader is still expecting a move up towards $800, noting that it first needs to break above $570

Bitcoin has been leading the market lower over the past couple of days, with Ethereum erasing the bulk of its recent gains as it slides towards $500, while BTC shows intense signs of weakness as bulls fail to defend $17,000.

This decline marks the first sustained pullback seen throughout the course of the recent multi-week uptrend.

Both BTC and ETH are still up significantly from their multi-month lows, but there now seems to be a greater risk of seeing even further downside.

One trader is noting that Ethereum needs to begin rallying higher and break above $570 to see further upside. He notes a break above this level could lead it to $800.

Ethereum Defends $500 as Selling Pressure Mounts 

At the time of writing, Ethereum is trading down just over 2% at its current price of $510. This is around where it has been trading throughout the past few days.

The selling pressure seen over the past few days isn’t letting up, and Bitcoin’s break below $17,000 could create headwinds that force ETH lower in the near-term.

Analyst: ETH Could Rocket Towards $800 if One Key Level is Reclaimed

One trader explained in a recent tweet that a reclaim of $570 could open the gates for Ethereum to see a sustained move up towards $800.

“ETH: Line held. Once we reclaim $570 we’ll go to $800. For now expecting lower.”

Bitcoin

Image Courtesy of Mayne. Source: ETHUSD on TradingView.

Although Ethereum could slide lower in the near-term – as mused by the analyst – the next strong upswing seen by the crypto could mark the start of a move towards $800.

This would allow the crypto to erase its trend of underperforming Bitcoin and potentially see significantly higher highs in the months ahead.

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Charts from TradingView.

Bitcoin Struggles to Hold $17,000 After Wiping Out $1b in Open Interest

Bitcoin

Bitcoin

Bitcoin Struggles to Hold $17,000 After Wiping Out $1b in Open Interest


  • Bitcoin has been struggling to hold above $17,000, despite this being an important price level for the cryptocurrency
  • Where it trends next will depend largely on whether or not bulls can continue building support at this level
  • So far, each dip below it has been met with intense buy-side support that has allowed it to ascend
  • Where it trends next will likely depend largely on its imminent price action
  • It is important to note that this recent selloff resulted in nearly $1 billion in open interest being wiped out
  • This may make the cryptocurrency fundamentally healthier in the days, weeks, and months ahead

Bitcoin and the rest of the crypto market have been facing their first sustained pullback in the time following BTC’s rally up towards its all-time highs.

The rejection right below these highs, coupled with fear stemming from Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin’s comments regarding a new wave of crypto regulations, have both hampered its price action.

Bears are taking increasing control over its price action, and where it trends in the near-term may depend largely on how bulls continue responding to the $17,000 level.

Bitcoin Descends Below $17,000 as Bulls Struggle to Find Support 

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading down just over 2% at its current price of $16,850. This marks a notable decline from the cryptocurrency’s recent $17,600 highs set a handful of days ago.

Where the entire market trends in the mid-term may depend largely on whether or not it remains below $17,000 for an extended period of time.

This level has been strong support throughout the past 24-hours, but the buying pressure here appears to be dissolving.

A sustained bout of trading here could result in the entire market seeing some massive near-term downside.

BTC Sees Massive OI Cleansing During Course of Recent Drop 

Throughout the course of the ongoing decline, Bitcoin has seen a massive decline in open interest within the derivatives and futures market.

In aggregate, $1 billion in OI was wiped out as a result of this move lower. It also led to record trading volume and $1.5 billion in long positions for all tokens being liquidated – trends that one analytics platform spoke about in a recent tweet:

“BTC yesterday: – $1 billion of Open Interest wiped out – record trading volume: $66 billion on futures and $7 billion on spot – $900 million longs liquidated – $1.5 billion longs liquidated on the entire futures market (all coins, all exchanges).”

Bitcoin

Image Courtesy of Coinalyze.

This could ultimately help the crypto see more sustainable growth in the future, as high OI can often lead to immense turbulence in both directions.

Featured image from Unsplash.
Pricing data from TradingView.

Facebook Libra Could Launch As Soon As January, Amidst Bitcoin Resurgence

bitcoin libra facebook crypto

Bitcoin

Facebook Libra Could Launch As Soon As January, Amidst Bitcoin Resurgence


Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies are once again a hot topic, being discussed across the broader financial space the most since Facebook’s Libra cryptocurrency was first announced. On the heels of the recent resurgence in the crypto market, rumors suggest that Facebook could be ready to launch Libra as early as January 2021.

What sort of impact would its launch have amidst the recent Bitcoin resurgence and any upcoming altcoin season?

Will Bitcoin Benefit Again From Facebook’s Crypto Launch?

Bitcoin price came just dollars away from setting a new all-time high this week before a correction took the asset back a few notches to refuel its jets for another push higher.

The recent rally even became more overheated than when Bitcoin surged from $3,000 to $13,000 in 2019 alongside Facebook Libra rumors hitting a boiling point. The market boiled over and came crashing down for another nine months once Libra was finally revealed, and regulators stepped in to stop it.

RELATED READING | QUANT ANALYST: SURGING STABLECOIN SUPPLY TO DRIVE UNPRECEDENTED BITCOIN BUY PRESSURE

Libra, and crypto by association, suddenly became a target of US regulators, and things haven’t quite been the same for the industry since. Binance was forced to ushers US customers to a region-specific version of its flagship exchange, and BitMEX has been targeted by the US Department of Justice and the CFTC.

Libra’s announcement let the world know that cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin were here to stay, now that the likes of Facebook were considering rolling out a coin of their own. And now, with Bitcoin back as the finance world’s hottest asset, the time for Facebook to launch couldn’t be better for the emerging technology.

 bitcoin facebook libra btcusd

Libra speculation took Bitcoin to $13,000, what will an actual launch do for crypto? | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

Report: Libra Fiat-Backed Stablecoin To Launch As Early As January

According to a report from Financial Times, citing sources familiar with the matter, the social media giant could launch the Libra stablecoin as soon as January of next year.

The report claims that although the Libra Association had plans to introduce dozens of new coins, the launch will only include one, fiat-backed stablecoin similar to Tether.

RELATED READING | FOMO BEGINS: BITCOIN ADOPTION EXPLODES TO HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE PREVIOUS PARABOLIC PEAK

Facebook hopes to use Libra to enable financial access for all through its variety of social media apps, including Facebook, Messenger, Instagram, and What’sApp.

The token’s launch coming during a revival of Bitcoin’s bull run could bring added speculators and interest to the market. And with Libra acting as a stablecoin that has competition already from the likes of Tether and USD Coin, it poses no serious threat to Bitcoin or any of the altcoins in the top ten.

Still, like all cryptocurrencies, Libra could very well earn its place in the financial world, by leveraging its massive userbase as a Trojan Horse.

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Bitcoin Fundamentals Remain Great Despite $3,000 Drop From Highs: Analyst

Bitcoin Price

Bitcoin Fundamentals Remain Great Despite $3,000 Drop From Highs: Analyst


  • Bitcoin has dropped dramatically from its $19,500 highs
  • The coin fell as low as $16,200 earlier today amid a strong sell-off and a lack of buying support
  • Some think that the $3,000 drop could be the start of a deeper retracement in the months ahead
  • Willy Woo, a prominent on-chain analyst, remains optimistic.

Bitcoin Drops Dramatically From $19,500 Highs to $16,200 Lows

Bitcoin has dropped dramatically from its $19,500 highs. The coin fell as low as $16,200 earlier today amid a strong sell-off and a lack of buying support. Some believe this is a result of most U.S. traders and institutions taking the past few days (and next few days) off as a result of the Thanksgiving season.

Some think that the $3,000 drop could be the start of a deeper retracement in the months ahead. Though, according to Willy Woo, the long-term fundamentals of this space remain more bullish than ever, making this a good time to buy.

Referencing the chart below from Glassnode, which shows that Bitcoin’s exchange flows are neutral, Woo wrote:

“Margin longs will be spanked until they go short. Was bullishness was way overheated. Exchange flows are neutral; spot sellers are matched with buyers. Fundamentals a great. The next few weeks? A great time to scoop cheap coins for 2021.”

He added that the recent rally from the $17,000 region to $19,000 was marked by “smaller buyers.” To him, this is a clear sign that the market was starting to become overheated in the short-term as small buyers are often indicative of retail players:

“The last phase of the run to ATH resistance was marked by smaller buyers, a class inrush of noob FOMO. That said, the rate of those new users coming last week was the highest we’ve seen in this bull cycle, right up there with 2017 mania levels.”

Image

Chart of BTC's price action over the past few months with an analysis of on-chain trends from Willy Woo (@Woonomic on Twitter).
Source: BTCUSD from TradingView.com

Not the Only Bull

Other analysts remain bullish despite the ongoing drop.

Referencing how a vast amount of Bitcoin is being bought by retail players using platforms such as PayPal, Dan Morehead, co-CIO of Pantera Capital, recently said:

“When PayPal went live, volume started exploding. The increase in itBit volume implies that within four weeks of going live, PayPal is already buying almost 70% of the new supply of bitcoins. PayPal and Cash App are already buying more than 100% of all newly-issued bitcoins.”

Many think that eventually, buyers will strongly outweigh sellers on any given day. This will result in a strong surge higher over time as there isn’t enough market supply of BTC to meet market demand.

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Price tags: xbtusd, btcusd, btcusdt
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Bitcoin Fundamentals Remain Great Despite $3,000 Drop From Highs