2018北京国际金融博览会聚焦:无币区块链、沙盒监管、银行布局等8大精华看点

“区块链最有望落地的就是银行”;“无币区块链大有可为“;“大部分的链改都不会成功”;”监管沙盒是很重要的创新“;区块链技术或可解决农民工工资拖欠问题”……


11月3日下午,北京金博会区块链专场论坛在北京展览馆隆重开幕。本次2018北京国际金融博览会在北京展览馆开幕,主题为“金融开放 金融改革 金融创新”,共有银行、基金、证券、保险等领域150余家金融机构参展,展示金融风险防控、智慧金融服务、普惠金融创新等金融业最新成果。作为中国金融业的年度盛会,金博会已成功举办十三届,发展成为国内外具有较大影响力的金融专业展会,被誉为“中国金融第一展”。

多位区块链行业的企业家和专家就区块链的发展发表自己的观点,火星财经(ID:hxcj24h)记者昨天也在现场参展并学习,为大家梳理和提炼了以下几位嘉宾的演讲要点。

中国保监会原副主席魏迎宁:

区块链可以解决陌生人相互信任问题

中国保监会原副主席魏迎宁先生在区块链专场作了开幕致辞,他表示,区块链作为比特币的底层技术,是随着比特币的问世引起关注的。区块链作为一种去中心化的分布式计量技术,解决了陌生人之间的相互信任问题,这是它的价值所在。除了发行数字货币,也就是数字代币,记录数字货币的交易之外,区块链还能不能有其它的应用场景?能不能为实体经济服务呢?当然,人们的看法不完全一样,可能只有实践才能给出最有力的回答。


刚才进入会场之前,我们简单地参观了一下区块链专场的展览,展示了我国区块链应用的初步成果,虽不成熟,也令人鼓舞,将来很可能就如同网络支付、网络购物、网络约车一样,覆盖应用、惠及大众。我们感到欣慰的是,中国的区块链应用研究近乎与世界同步,处于领先地位,已经积极参与国际规则的制定,我们也有着重要的话语权。

中国银行原副行长王永利:

准确把握数字货币和监管二者的关系


中国银行原副行长王永利先生发表演讲表示:要想把握网络上的加密数字币,首先要准确地认知我们今天的货币是个什么样的东西。如果我们连货币都讲不清楚的话,当然就讲不清楚网络的加密数字币到底是什么,我们要重新梳理、准确把握货币的本质和演变的逻辑。


7-8月份我在微信公众号连续发了两天,强烈呼吁理性看待数字币区块链,准确定位数字币,并要有效监管。当然,9月4号国家采取了严厉的行为,今天可能依然有很大的争论,这个东西是不是太严厉了,但是监管跟不上的时候,为了保证社会的稳定,叫停是完全可以的。现在的问题是,可能还需要我们更准确地把握好这二者的关系,不要简单化,既要促进它的健康发展,有效发挥它的作用,同时监管也要跟上,实施有效监管,防止出现恶性结果。



中国建设银行原董事长王洪章:

币和链确实是分不开的

论坛现场,中国建设银行原董事长王洪章发表相关演讲。他认为,通过区块链技术,农民工工资拖欠的问题有望得到解决;最大的区块链应用是来自央行,现在深圳已经搭建了基于区块链的贸易融资平台,前海已经在进行测试。他认为,区块链最有望落地的就是银行,当然也包括其它的金融行业。


王洪章还表示,币和链确实是分不开的,但要注重区块链技术在实体经济中的应用。“我曾经在一个讨论会上致辞,说了一句可能外行的话,区块链发展趋势来看,可能要把区块链技术和比特币分开。有人说分不开,我看了有关方面的书,确实是分不开。但还是要更加注重区块链技术在实体经济当中的应用,特别是应用场景。分不开可以,但是不能制造纯粹虚拟数字化的货币完全是为了交易,为了增加区块链技术财富,这是有问题的。”王洪章说道。



美国消费者金融保护署前高级官员全丹:

美国创新激励政策给中国监管层的建议


美国消费者金融保护署(CFPB)前高级官员全丹在圆桌论坛上,针对“美国创新激励政策环境有什么建议给中国的监管层?”全丹也表示:个人认为无论是沙盒还是无异议函,这样的工具是给监管部门提供了非常大的灵活性,如果能够善于使用这些工具,可以在区块链非常早期的时候,法律和政策还不是非常明确,还不知道如何监管这些新的科技的时候,可以利用沙盒或者无异议函这种比较灵活性的政策工具设置一个所谓的Perimeter,就是保护消费者和投资者,这些科技在发展的时候不会有太大的破坏性。

太一云董事长邓迪:

监管沙盒是一个非常重要的创新


太一云董事长邓迪表示,最近香港证监会公布了新规,将会在监管沙盒内探讨虚拟资产的交易平台或者区块链的项目是否能够受到监管,并且观察它们的运作情况。今天我也感到监管沙盒是一个非常重要的创新,但是这种创新并不是英国创造的监管沙盒,个人认为中国才是最早监管沙盒的国家。冒昧地说一句,伟大的邓小平同志在深圳划出了这样一个特区,其实某种意义上来说就是一个监管的沙盒。


中国是有这样先行先试的特点,一年多以前我们在江西的赣州提出能不能建设区块链监管的沙盒,随着全球监管沙盒开始进入一个世纪落地的环境,不管是英国还是沙特、迪拜,或者哈萨克斯坦和加拿大,他们都在做监管沙盒的努力,针对新进金融科技的公司来说有没有一个环境能够让他们进行试错,并且将他们的错误限制在比较小的范围,监管者可以从中进行学习?这一点其实是监管沙盒最大的意义

中国区块链应用研究中心理事长郭宇航:

区块链要发展关键在落地


中国区块链应用研究中心理事长、星合资本董事长郭宇航作了致辞。他表示,总结一下,未来无币区块链成为舆论主流之外,我们会看到更多数字类资产,包括版权类、身份类,所谓大数据的交换资产,通过上链的方式更便于交易,降低交易成本,将会成为监管目前考虑的突破口。


下一轮真正能够引起全社会对区块链再次关注的无非就是落地落地再落地,通过链改的深化把传统行业更好地和区块链找到真正的结合点,而不只是炒作。比特币在下一个减半周期出现以后,币价上涨不可否认将会成为区块链接下来热点推动的主要力量。

中国金融博物馆理事长王巍:

无币区块链大有可为


中国金融博物馆理事长王巍作了致辞,他表示,我们坚信区块链是改变社会的,为什么?因为互联网是不可逆转的,资产的数字化、数字的资产化也是不可逆转的,网络的交易也是不可逆转的。八零后出生的一批互联网人已经成为了社会主流,现在六亿多人都是互联网训练出来的,他们的生活方式已经主导了社会,这些也是不可逆转的,所以区块链也是不可逆转的。


我们仍然是在艰难的过程当中,需要让中国区块链创业者和全球同步,去年ICO停止之后反而逼迫着最优秀、最出色的大脑关注在无币区块链,现场我们也看到食品行业、知识产权和传媒等等方面,无币区块链已经产生了很多应用场景,值得我们欣慰,也是中国的一种智慧和妥协,无币区块链行业当中还会有独特的、伟大的创造,我们也愿意为这种坚持不懈、不屈不挠的创新展台,希望大家在维护社会安全、金融安全的同时撑过困难时期,一起创造属于未来区块链的革命。



区块链圆桌论坛:

链改是真需求还是伪命题

在区块链专场圆桌论坛上,聚链集团董事长张寿松、比特创业营发起人徐义吉、Alabs区块链实验室创始人崔萌、共享财经创始人史青伟、中食链CEO范金刚和杭州宇链科技中国区商务负责人郑晓峰6位嘉宾围绕“链改是真需求还是伪命题”的主题展开了讨论。


比特创业营发起人徐义吉表示:链改到底是真的需求还是假的需求?大部分的链改都不会成功,因为它们是用原先非区块链行业的经验面向或者映射区块链世界产生的价值体系,责权利并不是非常纯粹和完全的,真正创新的发动机、来自创新的本质是需要打个问号的。


杭州宇链科技中国区商务负责人郑晓峰表示:第一次看到这个题目的时候我是非常诧异的,不太能够理解为什么链改能够放在这样一个讨论面上,就像不能说互联网+是不是真伪命题,应该是和某个领域结合来看真伪命题。

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Russian State Duma Committee Mulls Central Bank-Issued Crypto Pegged to the Ruble

/latest/2018/11/russian-duma-committee-head-does-not-rule-out-emergence-of-stablecoin/

Russian State Duma Committee Mulls Central Bank-Issued Crypto Pegged to the Ruble

russian-duma-committee-head-does-not-rule-out-emergence-of-stablecoin

Speaking at a press conference concerning rising national debt, a Russian State Duma committee leader did not rule out the possibility of a central bank-issued stablecoin coming into existence.

Financial Market head Anatoly Aksakov noted how he was “convinced…a secured cryptocurrency” would appear, according to Russian media. Aksakov reportedly explained the cryptocurrency would be issued by the Central Bank and would have a 1:1 peg with the Russian Ruble, the country’s fiat currency.

The comments made by Aksakov come a week or so after a Russian mining and smelting company announced it would be coming out with a stablecoin. Kommersant reported how Norilsk Nickel was launching a stablecoin backed by metals to give the

“Market a cryptoasset with less volatility than the well-known cryptocurrency [bitcoin], and a more obvious connection with real values.”

Vladimir Potanin of Norilsk indicated the move would help raise money to finance projects and would be a move towards “a completely new group of investors, since the digital economy offers “…protection from sanctions.”

Will The CryptoRuble Emerge?

Rumors surrounding a purported Russian ‘CryptoRuble’ have carried on throughout 2018. At the start of the year, many were speculating the nation was exploring the creation of  the cryptocurrency to get around sanctions. Officials inside of the Kremlin reportedly said President Vladimir Putin commissioned people to get working on establishing a cryptocurrency, the Financial Times reported.

Notably Venezuela has already issued an oil-backed cryptocurrency called the Petro (PTR). It’s a controversial crypto that some believe as issued to draw in foreign investment and bypass international sanctions. CryptoGlobe recently covered some of the first sales of Venezuela’s Petro. 

It can apparently, according to officials, be purchased from the Superintendency of Cyrptoassets and Related Activities, but the official wallets were removed from the internet after the launch. A few local politicians posted photos of themselves purchasing the cryptocurrency and held up ownership certificates while speaking to reporters.

Declining Mining Difficulty Could Signal Bottom of Bitcoin’s Bear Market, Analysts Claim

Declining Mining Difficulty Could Signal Bottom of Bitcoin’s Bear Market, Analysts Claim

Cryptoasset market analysts have called attention to a historical trend in bitcoin’s price action, that could potentially signal coming changes in its direction – namely, a possible end to the bear market.

The key indicator being observed is mining difficulty, specifically the direction of the difficulty changes – getting less or more difficult. Mining bitcoin is currently becoming less difficult, which is a phenomenon rarely as it happened for only 13% of the bitcoin network’s history, according to Element Group, a virtual asset analysis and consultancy service.

Element has researched and outlined the correlation between decreasing mining difficulty and bitcoin price movements, among other effects. What it found is that, the rare event of mining difficulty reduction often occurs toward the bottom of market cycles, when bitcoin sell pressure abates and prices find their lows.

btc_dif_price.png(from elementgroup.com)

According to Element, “Historical cycles suggest that we may need to experience 6 to 12 months of negative to flat difficulty growth for prices to bottom.”

btc_difficulty_2018.png(from bitinfocharts.com)

Falling mining difficult invariably means that mining power (“hashrate” in mining jargon) is leaving the network, because the difficulty adjustment script which tries to keep Bitcoin mining time to ten minutes per block is noticing that blocks are taking more than ten minutes to be mined – because of less hashrate.

The reasons that miners would leave the network for are slightly less straightforward, although Element is of the opinion that lower bitcoin prices probably force the least efficient mining operations out of the game – lowering the network’s hashrate and subsequently its difficulty.

A higher concentration of bitcoin mining rewards and higher efficiency of those still mining, could translate to decreasing selling pressure on the part of remaining miners selling less bitcoin for operational costs.

btc_hashrate_2018.png(from bitinfocharts.com)

That narrative would seem to accord with the data: the dramatic 2018 rise in hashrate, of at least 500%, seems to have levelled off somewhat, as seen in the above chart, at the same time bitcoin’s price plummeted and consolidated around the $6000 range, down from highs of over $19,000. More hashrate for less dollar returns could easily translate to more competition.

The levelling of hashrate could very well be miners exiting during hard times, and the network and mining power consolidating. Indeed, as CryptoGlobe recently reported, there have been reports that mining has perhaps become unprofitable for some, especially less experienced miners.

Max Kaiser, former Wall Street trader and television show host on the Russia Today network, has confidently claimed that “price follows hashrate” on the Bitcoin network. In this complex game of hashrate, difficulty and price, it is hard to say when the record-setting price stability of bitcoin will end.

BCH又涨了?来看它的新一轮压力测试结果

巴比特

服务于区块链创新者

本周四,也就是11月1日,有一些Bitcoin Cash(BCH)爱好者自称是一个专业的压力测试团队,他们对BCH链进行了压力测试。当日,BCH网络交易超过73.3万笔,最大的区块为14MB,这个区块一次包含了7.3万笔交易。

该团队在24小时内发送了数千笔交易,并且记录了所有数据。据其报告显示,他们研发了一个交易输出工具DoW,包含了在3个不同客户端(BU、ABC和SV)中运行的7个全节点。用于压力测试的全节点分布在世界各地,包括美国、芬兰、比利时和香港。

在压力测试开始的时候,相应数额的BCH会被添加到DoW的UTXO管理系统中,然后这些交易被分成多个UTXO,金额在15000到15000000聪不等。

接下来,这些UTXO就会进入Walker流程,也就是交易输出的流程,并且被分成20到2900个新的UTXO。每个等待输出的Walker流程在重新开始之前都需要BCH链的确认。

该团队表示,Walker的加载过程是手动的,因此这种压力测试方法需要耗费相当多的时间,可能“延迟所有Walker的激活”。

在第一阶段的测试中,该团队发现了Walker的多次故障和延迟。他们表示:

运行BU客户端的节点并未出现故障,而SV和ABC节点都出现了不同程度的故障。

在发送了第一批的14万笔交易之后,我们花了一些时间去分析其中存在的问题,重新收集了出现故障的Walker的UTXO,并重新开始测试。

测试结果显示,24小时内BCH链处理了733782笔交易。该团队还计划在11月17日也就是硬分叉开始的两天之前进行一次大规模测试。

与9月1号的压力测试(历时四天)相比,本次测试的规模较小。然而,也有一些值得关注的数据。区块554751是当日挖出最大的区块。这个容量为14MB的区块处理了73000笔交易,矿工获得了0. 14320561BCH的手续费。另一个由SV矿池挖出的区块大小是9.3MB,包含了44000多笔交易。就像9月的测试一样,尽管当天发送了数万笔交易,内存池依然没有出现拥堵的状况,网络费用也相对较低。

为什么要用PoW共识机制?为什么“挖矿”不算浪费资源?什么是真正的去中心化?算力集中是不是一个值得担忧的问题?确认时间长,交易太慢怎么办?12期喵懂区块链喵懂区块链小喵带你详解区块链共识机制之POW(Proof of Work)——工作量证明机制。还不👇进来看!完整系列视频请在巴比特资讯公众号后台回复“喵懂”获得。

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Vitalik Buterin:只有我退一步,以太坊才能更进一步

当你问他5年前发现自己的区块链系统有什么问题时,Vitalik Buterin可以迅速说出一堆有关以太坊的专业术语。但你要是问到他在这项技术的未来扮演了什么样的角色,他就会变得很谨慎。

毫无疑问,这位24岁的年轻人依然是其创造的这一思想群体的指路明灯。这一点在布拉格的这场活动中展现的淋漓尽致。数千名开发者、投资者和创业者都参与了这场由非营利组织以太坊基金会主办的会议Devcon。这是以太坊社会一年一度的“团圆时刻”。

本次会议最热门的话题就是Buterin提出的“以太坊2.0”的想法。这是以太坊未来的发展趋势,能够实现更大规模的高效运作,吸引更多的用户。

Buterin在会议中接受采访时表示,他应该开始退居幕后了,这是“社区发展的重要一步”。

为什么呢?简单来说,在一个真正去中心化的系统中,不应该存在一个足以击垮整个系统的部分,Buterin就曾经对以太坊的决策产生了重大影响。

不过,他说,这种情况已经有所改善。以太坊社区的自然发展带来了这样的改变,另外,他也在有意削弱自己的影响力。在Devcon活动之前,Buterin看到了一条推特评论:

我看到一条评论说:哇,社区好像真的可以合作了,不仅仅是依赖于少数人。

在Devcon一场有关社区决策的讨论中,以太坊基金会的Hudson Jameson表示,Buterin“在很多方面的确已经没有决策权了”。

这在我看来是非常重要的,是以太坊生态发展且走向去中心化的关键。

对以太坊来说,这次转型正值一个关键时期,开发者正在尝试解决一系列复杂的技术问题,他们认为这些问题阻碍了以太坊的全面普及。

其中最重要的就是脱离PoW的计划。目前,包括以太坊和比特币在内的区块链系统都在用这种资源密集型方案来帮助网络参与者达成共识,确保他们存储在区块链上的信息是有效的。而在Buterin的带领下,以太坊团队已经进行了多年的研究,希望能够研发出另一种基于PoS的共识系统。

在Sharding和Plasma技术的开发上,他同样起到了一个重要的作用。通过这两项技术,用户能够执行特定的交易,同时不需要将每笔交易都写入区块链,从而提高网络的交易处理量。(目前以太坊每秒仅可处理15笔交易,而Visa每秒至少能够处理2000笔交易。)

上述所有改进都会是以太坊2.0的一部分,Buterin这些技术的开发过程中起到了重要的作用。尽管如此,他说,他在具体项目中的参与度“和两三年前相比已经少了很多”。他补充道,在降低自己影响力方面,他们绝对取得了巨大的进展。


本文发布之后,比特币分析师Tone Vays猜测Buterin是不是要效仿BM,Buterin在推特上转发了这篇文章,并进一步作出澄清:

1. 我不是要离开(以太坊)。我不会停更或者减少博客文章、研究报告和github任务的更新次数。2. 当Vitalik是负责人的时候,人们会说以太坊是中心化的!当Vitalik不再承担重要角色时,又有人会说Vitalik要跟BM一样走人了!比特币极权主义者真是没有可信度!

为什么要用PoW共识机制?为什么“挖矿”不算浪费资源?什么是真正的去中心化?算力集中是不是一个值得担忧的问题?确认时间长,交易太慢怎么办?12期喵懂区块链喵懂区块链小喵带你详解区块链共识机制之POW(Proof of Work)——工作量证明机制。还不👇进来看!完整系列视频请在巴比特资讯公众号后台回复“喵懂”获得。

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吴忌寒:区块链金融市场要想有出路,必须拥抱监管

11月2日,清华大学经济管理学院数字金融资产研究中心正式成立,此中心为比特大陆向清华大学经济管理学院捐赠设立,旨在开创数字金融资产新兴领域的学术研究,整合世界顶尖的业界和学术资源,为数字金融资产领域的健康发展和制度设计搭建全球领先的研究平台。

在成立大会上,比特大陆联合创始人、首席执行官吴忌寒发表了主题为《区块链发展带来的反思与启示》的演讲。

以下为吴忌寒演讲内容精编,由巴比特整理。

今天我演讲的主题是《区块链发展带来的反思与启示》。

2011年,我进入比特币社区,接触到区块链技术。2013年,我和詹克团一同创立比特大陆,如今公司也得益于行业快速发展。今年11月1 日,是中本聪发布比特币白皮书的十周年,作为参与到这一历史进程和创业过程的人,我想和大家一起来回顾下比特币和区块链的发展,并分享我的心得。

过去十年中,区块链领域至少出现了两个非常重要的现象。

比特币的最初设想与挑战 币值不稳定未解、先发优势已丧失

 

比特币诞生之初就致力于创造一个点对点、无国界的超主权货币,但它的最初设想 却在实践中遭遇了挑战。

按照最初的设想,比特币但发行总量和发行曲线是固定的,具有货币政策的保守性,与此同时,比特币点对点的交易形式不受主权管控,让它有可能成为更自由、更开放的货币。它成功吸引了人们的注意,越来越多人存储它、使用它,比特币的价格越来越高。随着使用人群的扩张,比特币的货币属性越来越强,比特币社区像滚雪球一样壮大,使用场景也变得越来越丰富。

那么,比特币在实践中受到了什么挑战呢?

一是市值不稳定带来的支付挑战

不稳定的币值使得人们在使用它进行日常支付时,遭遇到很大挑战。这个世界仍然有很多人经济条件并不宽裕,美国只有30%左右的家庭拥有不少于1000美元的资金储蓄,可用作应急开支。绝大部分人要依赖信用卡、短期借款,如果货币的购买力发生大幅度收缩,这样的生活是无法管理的。美国尚且如此,生活在非洲、南美洲的贫困国家和地区更甚。

人们该如何面对币值不稳定的货币? 面对这个问题,比特币社区至少提供了两种答案。

答案一 “当比特币的市值发展得足够大, 币值的波动性就会降低到足够低。”

第一个答案来自数据统计,从统计上来看,过去几年随着比特币市值的不断增长,波动性在持续下降。如果把相关性进一步延伸,我们会得到一个简单结论,那就是:当比特币的市值发展得足够大,币值的波动性就会降低到足够低。

如果比特币币值的波动性降低到和美元、欧元或者其它主流国家货币一样,那么比特币用于日常储存和支付的问题就不会太大。这是第一个答案。


答案二 “比特币不能被用作支付工具, 而只能作为一种价值储存工具。”

第二个答案是彻底承认这个现实。比特币不能被用作支付工具,而只能作为一种价值储存工具。不过这本身也存在巨大争议,既然价值是巨大波动的,那怎么可以把价值储存在比特币上呢?


过去几年,比特币的价格不断上涨,翻了很多倍。然而其作为价值储存工具这个美好概念的背后,实际上是整个比特币社区陷入了一种为炒作而炒作的状态。很多人承认比特币就是用来投机的,是个虚无主义的东西。


这两种答案也会影响比特币的技术发展路径:

如果未来比特币的市值还在增长,波动性相对稳定,并且被用作支付工具,那么人们就会积极推动比特币扩容;


如果比特币没有被用作支付工具,甚至投资价值也很低,那比特币就不需要扩容,这也将引起技术上巨大的变革。

二是先发优势受到严峻挑战


我们知道,在具有网络效应的竞争格局中,通常市场老大很难被挑战。国内BAT这样的公司以及它们的产品,比如微信,形成的网络效应非常强大,迄今为止任何挑战者都没能替代它们,消费者的习惯很难迁移。


作为数字货币的一种,比特币具有明显的先发优势,经过多年发展的积累效应,它已经走进了用户和平台心中,这为它构建了很强的竞争壁垒,因此在相当长的时间内,比特币在数字货币的市值占比在90%-95%以上。


但如今,比特币市值占比已经从90%下滑到40%多。如果它真的具有网络效应,可以很好地保护自己,那就不应该出现眼下这样的困境。


“比特币核心开发者的傲慢, 与新兴数字货币竞争的双重打击。”


人们什么时候听到过腾讯的支付工具在社交产品占比中出现大幅下滑?那一定是它面临危机的时刻。同样,比特币在过去几年的发展中,也切实面临着非常多挑战。


一是主要控制比特币协议的开发团体认定:“比特币无法再通过简单扩容实现支付。PayPal、信用卡之类的支付工具足够好,点对点的电子支付不需要发展。”这种观点在我看来是巨大的错误。


二是这个错误给后发的竞争者带来了巨大机会,比如以太坊2016年底获得了飞跃式发展。其他主打快速、高容量等技术特点的新兴区块链资产也迅速崛起,受到投资者的热烈欢迎。


在这样的格局下,我个人受到的启示是:

“如果数字资产还有下一轮牛市, 那比特币的市值占比可能会进一步收缩。”

比特币作为最古老的、品牌效应最大的数字资产,价值肯定还会再增长。但一些在技术和社区治理上拥有重大创新的新兴数字资产,它们会赢得未来大部分的增长。市场不会再欢迎拒绝发展网络支付,拒绝发展网络容量的保守技术路线、意识形态式的数字资产。


以太坊在2016年底得到迅速发展,在这之中,我们一方面见识网络效应保护性的强大,另一方面也会看到如果犯错,变迁可能会在一夜之间发生。

以太坊的崛起与危机 区块链在金融市场的应用

我们知道计算机程序需要跑在一个特定的环境中,管理员可以更改数据库字段,对数值进行直接操作。玩过网络游戏的都明白,开外挂更改游戏数值,管理员会很快发现并封号,但独立程序不会有这种特点。如果你能够通过自己的聪明才智发现程序中对自己有利的方面并加以利用,环境外的人也无法干涉。

以太坊率先发展了一种古老的思想叫做Smart Contract,智能合约,它在英文中也可以叫做Indepent Program,就是独立程序。以太坊最早发展出来的形式就是智能合约,类似一个去中心化的股权登记名册。它取代了国内股票市场中“中证登”的角色,我们不再需要一个中心化的服务机构,相关的权益都登记在独立的计算机程序中,这为当时去中心化的众筹打开了方便之门。

“从比特币到以太坊, 社区一夜之间迁徙。”

作为产业中的观察者,我发现虽然是以太坊提供了这样的集资平台,但实际大家用于出资的货币仍然是比特币,而不是以太坊。

但是到2016年底,情况发生了改变。人们发现比特币网络堵塞得非常严重,这时加密货币社区几乎在一夜之间出现了货币使用平台的迁徙,从比特币迁移到以太坊。如今,以太坊网络的活跃度是超过比特币的,整个迁徙过程就是在那时候发生的。

这给了我们什么启示?

“比特币犯了定位错误 以自我为中心、拒绝为人民服务”

在今天的国际贸易中,尽管人民币已经走出去,实现国际化,但在实际支付中,人民币的使用量很少,什么原因?它不仅仅是因为美国人有先进的技术,而是因为它构建的网络效应本身就非常强大,心理上的认知结构就是一种巨大的网络效应。所以任何一种新兴货币在国际化的过程中,一定要抱着充分的耐心,扎扎实实的服务更多的场景和贸易,用的人多了,国际化也就顺理成章地完成了。没人用,强推国际化是不行的。

我觉得比特币在自身过程中犯了不少错误,它的定位就叫人们不要使用它,还把很多使用场景斥责为“垃圾交易”,这是一种以自我为中心、拒绝为人民服务的态度。

“在去中心化金融市场中, 以太坊开启了新的应用场景”

以太坊的诞生打开了新的应用场景,那就是去中心化的金融市场组织过程。首先是中心化的登记结算中心正在被去中心化智能合约所取代,其次是智能合约强大的可编程性,它的潜在用途十分丰富,可以做债券、加强合约、可以通过程序创造稳定币。

新兴的去中心化金融市场方兴未艾,刚刚开始。不过在这个过程中,我们也经历了去年ICO的泡沫热潮,参与其中的人都亏了很多钱,我觉得这是必须要反思的。

ICO狂潮后的反思 为什么一定需要监管?

“区块链自身无法解决金融市场 信息不对称与委托代理的问题”


ICO本质上是证券发行性质的活动,而证券发行在世界各国都受到严格管控。之所以对证券发行进行严格管控,是因为它涉及到经济学中两个很重要的因素,一个是信息不对称,另一个是委托代理。


ICO用于融资,肯定涉及信息不对称的问题,少数委托人他们拥有的信息及时性和丰富程度远胜于外部公募投资人。另外是委托代理的问题,公众把自己的钱投到ICO项目中,之后这些钱被如何使用?陷入了无人监管的状态。

这两个最基本的问题想通过区块链解决,是不可能的。

因此我们频频发现,在淘宝上找人代写ICO项目白皮书、找名人站台聚拢资金的情况出现。另外,资金的使用也存在很多令人担忧的地方,最著名的案例是一些硅谷知名的技术大咖出来融资,融资过程中使用来自瑞士的信托,但瑞士受托人直接把钱据为已有,这样的项目让投资者损失惨重,都是因为融资过程中缺乏监管而造成的恶果。

有人会说,去中心化的区块链技术不就是为了在没有监管的情况下开展各种金融活动的吗?我的回答是:

“凡是没有监管的金融活动, 往往都是灾难的开始。”

在这样的环境中,对踏踏实实做事的创业者来说,有监管的限制往往能吸取到更多资源。而当资源被越来越多的骗子浪费掉时,社会参与市场投资的热情就会受到巨大打击。

因此我们看到,ICO浪潮在今年年初开始破灭,融资额大幅度衰减,各种币要么归零,要么被交易所下架。

我相信这个痛苦的过程还会继续,已经下跌90%的币很可能再跌90%。

“历史上前所未有, 区块链创造的跨国金融市场”

如果要期待区块链金融市场发展,出路也很简单,那就是拥抱监管。区块链拥抱监管后,是不是就无法带来任何改变?我认为不是。

区块链在过去一年中创造的金融市场,有一点是历史前所未有的,那就是国际的连通性。各式各样的数字代币都在跨国市场上进行交易,甚至同时在全球好几百个交易所买卖,这在过去是很难看到的。

我们知道,一只股票或债券如果在多个交易所上市交易,对发行方来说意味着巨大成本。但在区块链上发行的资产,几乎都可以在全球上百个国家同时交易,这种流动性对于每个国家的消费者来说,他所接触的金融资产的连接性都是过去所不具备的。我相信,随着监管的介入,区块链创造的跨国金融市场将越来越成熟,区块链会给这个市场带来巨大提升。

“为了吸引区块链金融活动 未来各国监管将存在竞争格局,”

虽然直至今日,各国监管机构对区块链金融市场监管权力的竞争依然很暧昧。但我预计,未来监管机构应该会更明显地呈现出参与市场竞争的态势,包括各个地区的监管机构都会争取让区块链金融交易活动在自己的城市里发生,他们肯定已经意识到这件事。

例如美国,很多从业者也在与监管机构一起探讨,ICO应该使用美国证券法哪些法律进行管理。业内也推出了在区块链做证券发行融资(STO)的监管框架。

“世界经济格局因此改变, 新型合伙企业或将诞生”

在新兴技术手段下开展的传统金融活动,有可能大幅度改变或进一步强化现在世界的金融格局。

未来的金融活动可能很多在区块链上发生,资产可能更加便捷地在多国的投资人之间、在世界各地进行流转和交易,清算结算的效率会大幅提升,市场流动性也会得到大幅改善。

未来区块链上也有可能诞生这样一个平台,把有识别能力的全球专业投资人聚集起来、参与投资。比如一些数字版权类的资产,版权资产的现金流可以是电子化的,这样版权资产的创造就会成为一种风险活动,可以进行众筹,众筹后,数字版权销售的现金流可以按股份比例适时分配,在这种情况下,一些新型的合伙企业将会诞生。

另外一个案例是互助保险,它也是区块链中的一大热门,因为过去互助保险缺乏有效又低成本的技术手段完成彼此的协作。有了区块链,就可以更好实现。另外过去这种特定类型的、机构间交易的金融资产缺乏中心化的交易所支持,如果之后诞生基于区块链的平台,资产交易的效率将会大幅提升。

我们在回顾过去发生的ICO悲剧、展望未来技术发展时,得出这样一个结论,那就是:

“未来区块链市场会和传统金融监管机构、传统金融业务进行更多结合,将大幅提升金融效率,一些新兴企业和创业者也将有所作为。毕竟这个世界,需求的本质,商业的本质没有变,只是技术平台不断变化而已。而在技术平台变迁的过程中,我们不要产生一些过于奇异的想象,应该紧紧抓住金融从业者各方面的需求,抓住技术平台变迁的机会,肯定会大有作为。”

百人共读一本书是什么感受?专人解答各种区块链疑惑是什么感受?作者亲自为你答疑够不够?读书还能赢奖品,如果你也想轻轻松松理解区块链硬知识,欢迎长按添加小助手参与我们的读书会活动,活动详情请戳巴比特读书会|图文并茂,轻解区块链,你不来试试吗?

Student Turns $5K into $800K Trading Crypto, But Now Owes $400K in Taxes

Bitcoin taxes cryptocurrency Bitcoin Taxes

Student Turns $5K into $800K Trading Crypto, But Now Owes $400K in Taxes


One college student turned his $5K investment into $880k but now says trading “ruined” his life as he’s facing $400k in cryptocurrency taxes. 


From Big Profits to a Tax Nightmare

An anonymous college student recently posted on Reddit to solicit advice about what to do while they face a massive tax bill in the wake of cryptocurrency trading.

According to the post, the student, who lives in California, put $5,000 into Coinbase last year after a friend said they were investing in Ethereum 00.

After “hitting 10x’altcoinsiple alt coins,” the college crypto-trader eventually turned the $5k investment “all the way up to an $880,000 portfolio in December 2017.”

Big downturns with digital currency prices, and gambling “in more than a few bad ICOs to start 2018,” has led to a current portfolio value of $125k.

However, the “clueless college kid” now worries if their life is over because they are facing an estimated 2017 tax liability of around 400k.

Didn’t Know About Cryptocurrency Taxes

In the post, the student admits they neglected to allocate money for taxes because “they really never do teach this stuff.”

The post came with an accompanying link to the 1099-K Coinbase reported in the spring.

According to the student, all of the activity was crypto-to-crypto trades, and they did not “ever cash out to fiat and transfer any USD into my bank accounts from these tradings.”

Writing under a throwaway account, the college student asked the Reddit community for advice because they have not paid any taxes or filed returns for 2017, and are working a $12/hr part time job at Barnes & Noble.

Comments on the post were a mixture of pragmatic and grim. One person recommended to get “a tax professional and stop wasting time trying to get free advice.”

South Korea Claims $28M Tax From Bithumb But Finds No 'Illegal Activity'

Another user, who said they have “done a number of cryptocurrency returns” said the situation would “not be a high point in your life, but you will get through it.”

They recommended to stay away from “questionable accounting methods” and to work with an accountant to file a tax return ASAP, with a suggestion to possibly work out an installment agreement, or an Offer in Compromise with relevant authorities.

Crypto Taxation Is A Tricky Subject

Navigating through taxes when it comes to buying and selling cryptocurrencies has been a contentious talking point.

In April, Tom Lee of Fundstrat Global Advisors estimated a massive crypto-selloff by the middle of the month would likely lead to a capital gains tax bill of $25 billion for those in the United States.

Around the same time, Bitcoinist reported on a Twitter poll asking respondents in the United States about cryptocurrency taxes. 19% of the 9,339 respondents said they “already filed and paid,” but 53% said “they’ll never catch me.”

Last week, former U.S. Congressman Ron Paul argued in a blog post that exempting transactions in precious metals and cryptocurrencies from taxes would be some of the first steps to “end our monetary madness.”

What would you do if you were the college student facing a looming tax bill? Let us know in the comments below!


Image courtesy of Bitcoinist archives, Shutterstock, Twitter

The Daily: Hodl Hodl Launches OTC Desk, Decentraland Votes on Land Sales

In this edition of The Daily, we cover the launch of an OTC trading desk by P2P exchange Hodl Hodl and news about a Belarusian exchange trading cryptocurrencies out of New York. We also take a look at Decentraland’s new voting platform that allows members of the community to express their opinions on future development of the virtual reality project.

Also read: SEC Ramps Up Enforcement, 60% of Smart Contracts Are Dormant

P2P Exchange Offers Non-Custodial OTC Trading

The Daily: Hodl Hodl Launches OTC Desk, Decentraland Votes on Land SalesPeer-to-peer cryptocurrency exchange Hodl Hodl has launched an over-the-counter (OTC) trading desk in partnership with Tenbagger, a brokerage company licensed in the European Union. The new platform will allow clients to buy and sell large amounts of cryptocurrency with same-day settlement. It will also operate independently from Hodl Hodl’s existing P2P platform that currently supports purchases and sales of BTC and LTC.

Latvia-based Hodl Hodl has also developed a non-custodial cryptocurrency escrow service for the new OTC platform to ensure high level of security and transparency. According to an announcement on Medium, the exchange will create a unique multisig escrow account on the bitcoin core blockchain for each trade.

The Daily: Hodl Hodl Launches OTC Desk, Decentraland Votes on Land Sales

Last month, the no-KYC trading platform introduced a new type of multisig escrow account for contracts that requires two out of three keys to make a release. The system provides buyers with more control over the funds locked in escrow – they have one of the keys while the other two belong to the seller and the exchange. Hodl Hodl also recently announced it’s working to offer peer-to-peer bitcoin futures contracts.

Belarusians Launch US-Based Cryptocurrency Exchange

A new cryptocurrency exchange, founded by Belarusian immigrants, is now offering trading services out of New York. The team behind Crexby insists theirs is the first major Belarusian project in the space since the decree “On the Development of the Digital Economy” signed by President Alexander Lukashenko entered into force on March 28 this year.

The Daily: Hodl Hodl Launches OTC Desk, Decentraland Votes on Land Sales“Crexby is a revolving door for Belarus to the outside world, and for the global community to Belarus,” they said, noting that in addition to providing exchange services, the platform can also facilitate the implementation of unique projects, from charity fundraising initiatives to attracting large investments to crypto-friendly Belarus.

Crexby, whose office is registered at 30 Wall Street in Manhattan, is focused on both crypto-to-crypto and crypto-to-fiat trading. It supports 13 cryptocurrencies, including some of the leading coins by market capitalization such as bitcoin core (BTC), ethereum (ETH), and litecoin (LTC) as well as popular altcoins such as monero (XMR). The company claims it stores 90 percent of the digital assets in cold, multi-signature wallets and promises to expand the listings in the future taking into account requests and interest from its customer base.

Decentraland’s New Voting Platform Is Now Live

The Daily: Hodl Hodl Launches OTC Desk, Decentraland Votes on Land SalesVirtual reality project Decentraland has recently launched version 2.0 of its voting platform, Agora, that will allow holders of mana tokens to express their will on important matters. According to an announcement published on Decentraland’s website, the first two public polls on Agora concern key development questions.

The community has been asked: “Should we remove the ability to pause mana transactions?,” a question addressing a security feature built into the smart contract for mana that enables all transfers of the token to be halted. Developers say the feature is no longer needed as mana has been in circulation for over a year and they feel confident in removing the pause function.

The answer to the second question, “When should the next land auction be held?,” must determine when 9,000 unowned parcels of land will be made available to the community, the two options for holding Decentraland’s second land auction being Q4 of 2018 and Q1 of 2019. So far, the community has voted overwhelmingly, with 95 percent in favor of Q4 of 2018.

What are your thoughts on today’s news tidbits? Tell us in the comments section.


Images courtesy of Shutterstock.


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Why Blockchains Struggle to Gain Traction in Enterprises

Paul Brody is EY’s global innovation leader for blockchain. The views expressed are his own.


The Y2K program (does anyone remember that?) came about because software developers assumed, in the early days of computing, that newer, better enterprise systems would come along very soon and that their efficient two-digit date systems would be replaced long before the year 2000 came along.

There were very few CIOs in those days, and many of them would have carefully explained to those efficient software developers that if something isn’t broken, don’t fix it, which often followed the corporate view on IT issues.

You may think of CIOs as technology enthusiasts, and they are, but these days, IT systems are almost always mission-critical. Changing them out means accepting significant operational risk. While you can’t make a car with an electronic data interchange message, if those messages don’t go out or come in, there will be no raw materials for the manufacturing line to bolt together.

As a result, risk management in large enterprises means that we can’t drop in blockchain technology wherever we see a good application. Processes that work at scale, even ones that don’t work particularly well, are still less risky than adopting new ones, especially if you need to bring a bunch of business partners along with you for the ride.

When it comes to deploying blockchains in the enterprise, this means that some things that seem like obvious applications aren’t necessarily going to get traction.

The most typical blockchain solution that doesn’t gain traction even though, on the surface, it seems like a great idea, is supplier collaboration. Blockchains are ideal for complex, multi-party solutions.

Tokenization, in particular, is a powerful tool for managing supply chains because it means that each piece of inventory is subject to double-spend controls and reconciliation when it is tokenized.

You may think that such things already happen today. They don’t.

Enterprise double-spends

While I cannot put money in your bank account without moving it from another one, it turns out that most enterprise IT systems will let me create inventory just about anywhere — and without reconciliation.

Unloading raw materials off a truck? You can “receive” goods easily and because the trucking system and the enterprise are usually not linked, there’s no single system that demands you off-load raw materials from a truck if you want to put them in a warehouse.

By using tokenization and a blockchain to link up the supply chain, we can subject inventory tokens to double-spend controls and force reconciliation across the network. The result is a process that looks much more like banking. When we model this for EY clients, they can easily find a 20% or more reduction in inventory just by improving the accuracy of operations. The return on that investment is usually very large.

The obstacle here is that nearly all large companies already have supplier relationship management systems. These handle the exchange of shipment messages, invoices and inventory data. They’re often point-to-point, between one customer and one supplier, not including third parties like contract manufacturers or shipping companies, and often detached from payments as well. In addition, these systems can’t usually see past one tier back in the supply chain, so a factory fire or a big shipping delay two tiers back won’t be visible until it’s too late to properly react.

Inadequate? Expensive? A far cry from what an integrated blockchain solution could do? Yes, yes and yes. But do these systems work from a day-to-day operations standpoint without major disruption? Mostly. Would it be risky and scary to replace them without a major crisis or burning platform? Yes.

As a consequence, while we are building supply chain collaboration and integration systems, my expectations about where and when we can push a blockchain solution forward are somewhat different.

Businesses are seeking more procurement solutions where the ROI is particularly large and measurable or those scenarios where operational success in the supply chain depends heavily on actions that take multiple tiers out of the supply chain. In both of those cases, there’s often enough value or (perhaps sometimes more importantly) big enough capability gaps to justify enterprises’ investment in new solutions.

I believe blockchains will eventually become the standard mechanism by which companies interact with each other, covering everything from the business agreement to the tokenization of products and services, delivery and supply chain tracking and integrated payments.

The path there, in the enterprise, will be an indirect one, starting with one very specific problem at a time.

Corporate skyscraper image via Shutterstock

The leader in blockchain news, CoinDesk is a media outlet that strives for the highest journalistic standards and abides by a strict set of editorial policies. CoinDesk is an independent operating subsidiary of Digital Currency Group, which invests in cryptocurrencies and blockchain startups.

Bitcoin (BTC) Long-term Price Analysis

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Bitcoin (BTC) Long-term Price Analysis

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BTCUSD Long-term Trend – Ranging

Distribution territories: $7,500, $8,500, $9,500.

Accumulation territories: $5,500, $5,000, $4,500

On September 5, bitcoin’s price declined and breach the $6,800 territory, which saw it go down to a $6,000 mark on October 10. The cryptocurrency’s recent high on October 15 saw it surge upwards once more, to test $6,800.

Bitcoin, BTCUSD, Cryptocompare chartBitcoin Chart by TradingView

Looking closely, the two previously mentioned price territories are now defining the flagship cryptocurrency’s trading range. Both its SMAs are within the range, with a short space separating the 50-day SMA from the 14-day SMA.

The Stochastic Oscillators have headed north to close to range 50. This means the cryptocurrency is finding a ground to push against BTC, although it may continue within the boundaries of its ranging trend for the next few trading sessions. A sudden breach of the range could lead to a trap.

The views and opinions expressed here do not reflect that of CryptoGlobe.com and do not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research.