牛市梦破碎!STO也挡不住币圈要凉凉

北京市地方金融监督管理局(下称“北京金融监管局”)于11月8日正式成立,对外正式履行职责。公告称根据《北京市机构改革实施方案》,将北京金融局职责,市商务委员会的典当行、融资租赁公司、商业保理公司监管职责等整合,组建北京金融监管局,作为市政府直属机构,加挂北京金融局牌子,不再保留单设的北京金融局。据新京报记者了解,北京金融监管局正式挂牌仪式将在近期举行。

“凉凉月色为你思念成河”。币圈有多少人思念着2017年的牛市。2017年可以说是1CO元年,币价疯涨的一年。而今年1CO概念却淡下来了,进入一个全新的阶段STO。

有很多人把全部身家都压在STO,一直认为它会是区块链下一个风口。然而现实给又给我们沉重一击。

北京市地方金融监督管理局局长霍学文在演讲中告诫STO(证券型代币发行)从业者,如果在北京开展活动,政府将视同非法金融活动予以驱离。


STO(Security Token Offering),译为“证券型代币发行”。从名字看它与1CO、IFO概念相似,是一种代币发行的方式。STO最显著特点是所发行的代币具有证券属性,受证券机构(例如美国SEC)与相关证券法律法规的监管。


相比不易监管的1CO,STO的安全性性要高一些,因为证券型代币必须由有形资产包装,例如公司的收入或股份。而1CO中出现的则是实用型代币,其保障性不及证券型代币。也就是说,STO更容易被监管,发现难度与投资门槛都要比ICO高,因此安全系数也更高。但相比IPO,STO的发行和投资门槛,还是要低的多的。

STO的优点主要包括:

1、符合法规的证券学代币币操作IPO成本更低

2、可成为传统金融部门与区块链之间的桥梁

3、法律风险更低

4、进入金融市场的门槛更低

但STO目前还处于萌芽阶段,面临不少问题和挑战。例如在大部分国家,目前的法律条例只允许合法投资人购买证券型代币。与此同时,现在验证这类交易的参与者都是经过验证的合格投资人或企业投资者的机制还很不完善。除此之外,代币托管的合规性也存在不少问题。

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Cryptocurrency Market Update: $10 Billion Dumped as The Dead Cat Bounces

Crypto markets predictably dumping this weekend, Bitcoin SV, Cardano and Neo getting hurt.

As predicted crypto markets have dumped again after a few days of solid gains and the dead cat has bounced. Over $10 billion has flooded out wiping out all progress made this week. Total market capitalization is back below $130 billion and heading south again.

Bitcoin led the lemmings once again when it plunged almost 9% from $4,300 to a low of $3,940 a few hours ago. BTC has since recovered to back around the $4,000 level but further losses are likely. Ethereum tumbled in predictable fashion with a loss of over 6% to a $112 low for the day where it currently trades.

Altcoins are all bleeding again during Asian trading today. Bitcoin SV dropping the most with over 12% down towards $90, its brother BCH not far behind with an 8% slide. Cardano is losing a similar amount as it slips closer to dropping out of the top ten again. Stellar has retained its fourth spot above Bitcoin Cash despite dropping 6%. The rest in the top ten are dropping 4 to 6 percent on the day at the time of writing.

The top twenty is enduring heavier losses this Saturday with Neo, Zcash and Ethereum Classic all shedding 8 to 10 percent at the moment. The rest are falling around 6 to 8 percent on the day.

Yesterday’s fomo pump is still going today as Theta Token adds another 40% during the bleed out. It would be unwise to bet against it being the biggest dumper tomorrow however. Factom and MOAC are still climbing at the time of writing. Dumping the pump is Bitcoin Private nosediving 18% on the day, closely followed by Chainlink dropping 15% during Asian trading.

Today’s dump has been predicted as crypto markets dropped $10 billion in a few hours. Total market capitalization currently stands just below $130 billion and is poised for further declines which may mirror last Sunday’s big dump to the lowest point of the year. All gains made during the week have now been lost in the 7% slide and there are dark clouds on the horizon in crypto land.

FOMO Moments is a section that takes a daily look at the top 20 altcoins during the current trading session and analyses the best performing ones, looking for trends and possible fundamentals.

Tron Price Analysis: TRX/USD Bear Breakout Pattern, Liquidation at 1.5 Cents

Latest Tron News

The Tron network describes itself as a protocol that is laying down the infrastructure for a truly decentralized internet. Like other smart contracting and dApp development platforms, it relies on blockchain. What’s more, the team behind this network is keen on expanding and on-boarding as many developers as possible.

Read: Tom Lee: Crypto Is Bent Not Broken, Plenty of Room to Grow

To that end, Tron did acquire BitTorrent and with Project Atlas on the way, Justin Sun and the Tron Foundation announced a $100 million fund  with one key objective: empower dApp developers and change the way the multi-billion gaming industry operate.

Also Read: Tron’s TRX Up Almost 40% on The Week as Odyssey 3.2 Protocol Goes Live

The drive dubbed Tron Arcade bodes well with what the network is:  a decentralized world entertainment system. By spreading the funds over three years while working with different developers keen on bringing new innovation and entertainment to the gaming industry, Tron hopes to shape the gaming world while cutting off third party mediators in content delivery.

Now that the network has a developer suite in place and with the mobilization of $100 million, TronWatch has announced TronLink 2.0. The main objective of TronLink is to simplify access into the blockchain network via any web browser. TronLink works pretty much like MetaMask and with this release, enthusiast will have a better way to interact with the Tron blockchain be it in pure exploration or interaction with dApps smart contracts.

TRX/USD Price Analysis

Weekly Chart

TRX/USD Price Analysis

Aside from Bitcoin Cash SV, TRX/USD is one of the top performers adding 1.5 percent in the last week despite the general altcoin slowdown. Needless to say, TRX/USD is technically bearish and despite attempts of higher highs in lower time frames, bears are firmly in charge.

What we have in the weekly chart is a clean bear breakout pattern complete with high trade volumes (189 million versus 119 million) and even if there has been no confirmation, it appears as if the path of least resistance is to the south—check out the long lower wick indicating of sell pressure in lower time frames.

Now, unless there is a strong breakout above 1.5 cents and the complete reversal of last week’s losses, conservative—risk on traders should hold off from initiating trades only adding shorts once there are further breakdowns below 1 cent or last week lows.

Daily Chart

TRX/USD Price Analysis

In this time frame, the bear breakout as aforementioned is clear.

Though there are attempts of higher highs complete with a morning star pattern set in motion by Nov 25 bulls, bears are technically in charge trending within a re-test phase of a bear breakout pattern thanks to yesterday’s losses and the failure of buyers to build enough momentum thrusting prices above 1.5 cents—previous support now resistance.

Moving on, risk-off traders should take a neutral position until after there is confirmation of bulls above 1.5 cents confirming the morning star pattern of Nov 28 or trend resumption with losses below Nov 25 lows at 1.1 cents. If the latter is the case then TRX/USD could drop to Jan 24 lows as laid out in previous TRX/USD trade plans.

All Charts Courtesy of Trading View

Disclaimer: Views and opinions expressed are those of the author and aren’t investment advice. Trading of any form involves risk and so do your due diligence before making a trading decision.

Bitcoin, Ripple, Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash, Stellar, EOS, Litecoin, Cardano, Monero, TRON: Price Analysis, December 1

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

The market data is provided by the HitBTC exchange.

After the first signs of recovery, the opinion is divided on the current pullback in the market. Some say that it is only a dead cat bounce, while others believe that it is the start of a base building process that will result in a new uptrend. Michael Bucella of the crypto-focused investment firm BlockTower Capital said to CNBC that the smartest money has started investing.

Nonetheless, Paul Donovan, Global Chief Economist at UBS, has said the digital currencies can never be currencies and are “fatally flawed.” After the recent fall, many are questioning the longevity of cryptocurrencies. The past rallies and sharp plunges show that the nascent asset class swings between periods of extreme optimism and pessimism.

For the non-believers, this is not the space to be in. However, for the investors who believe in the long-term story of cryptocurrencies, Ric Edelman, founder and executive chairman of Edelman Financial Services, believes that it is a good time to start buying Bitcoin.

Will we or anyone pick the exact bottom? No! A bottom can only be identified in the hindsight. Therefore, the traders can scale in the position, gradually building a portfolio. Let’s see which virtual currencies are showing buy setups.

BTC/USD

Contrary to our opinion, the pullback in Bitcoin did not even reach the 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement level of $4,712.89. It turned down from $4,471.1 on November 29. This shows that the bears are unwilling to wait for higher levels to sell.  

BTC/USD

There is a minor support at the small uptrend line, below which a retest of the lows at $3,620.26 is possible. A breakdown of the year-to-date lows is likely to attract further selling, dragging the BTC/USD pair to $3,000 levels. This is an important level that should hold: a break of this can result in a plunge to $2,410.

However, we expect the $3,500-$3,000 zone to hold. Hence, traders who went long on our recommendation can hold their positions. We shall close the position if we find that the bears are sustaining below $3,500.

If the price bounces from the current levels, it can move up to $4,712.89 and $5,050.4. We can add more positions as the virtual currency rises northwards.

XRP/USD

Ripple triggered our suggested buy level on Nov. 28, but it could not rise above $0.4. Currently, the price has turned down and might retest the intraday lows of Nov. 25.

XRP/USD

The down trending 20-day EMA and the RSI below 40 levels will continue to attract sellers. A break below the support line of the descending channel can result in a drop to $0.24508. However, if the support holds, we anticipate a move back to the top of the range. Traders who have bought positions on our recommendation can hold with a stop loss of $0.3. The positions can be closed if the XRP/USD pair sustains below $0.3.

ETH/USD

The rebound in Ethereum fizzled out at $127.87. It continues to be in a downtrend but for the past seven days it has been trading inside the range $130.5-$102.2.

ETH/USD

A breakout of the range might face a minor resistance at the 20-day EMA, but we expect it to be crossed. The ETH/USD pair will face a stiff resistance at $167.32 and if this level is crossed, it will be at the 50-day SMA. We suggest traders wait for a trend reversal to be signaled before attempting long positions in it.

BCH/USD

Bitcoin Cash has extended its stay in the tight range of $204.76-$148.27. The longer the price remains in the range, the stronger the eventual breakout or breakdown will be.

BCH/USD

Both the moving averages are trending down and the RSI is in the oversold zone, which shows that the bears are in command. We had anticipated a breakout to the upside as the selling had been sharp and the BCH/USD pair was looking oversold. But a lack of buying and selling by the bears is threatening a breakdown of the range.

If the price sustains below $148.27, the slide can extend to the next support of $100. On the other hand, if the bulls hold the bottom of the range and breakout of $204.76, we expect a rally to $242.9 and $272.14. Aggressive traders can ride this move up but as this is a counter-trend trade, please keep the position size small.

XLM/USD

When a support breaks down, it becomes the new resistance. The stronger the support, the stronger the resistance will be. Stellar has turned down from close to the overhead resistance of $0.184.

XLM/USD

The bears will try to breakdown the recent lows of $0.13427050 and plunge the XLM/USD pair to $0.08 levels. On the contrary, the bulls will try to defend the zone between $0.13427050 and $0.1547188. We shall turn positive on the virtual currency if the price sustains above $0.184.

EOS/USD

EOS is in a strong downtrend. After a day’s pullback, the fall has resumed and the price has made a new year-to-date low. The next support on the downside is at $2.4.

EOS/USD

The failure of the EOS/USD pair to breakout of the downtrend line shows that the bears are in command. The traders should wait for the digital currency to put in a bottom and show signs of stabilizing before going long.

LTC/USD

Litecoin remains in a downtrend, with both the moving averages trending down and the RSI in the negative territory. The pullback stalled just above the $36 levels, which shows a lack of buying at higher levels.

LTC/USD

The bears will attempt to make a new year-to-date low, while the bulls will try to defend the current lows. If the bears succeed, the LTC/USD pair can correct to $20 levels.

However, if the bulls use the current fall to buy and form a higher low, it will indicate strength. The digital currency will show first signs of a trend change, if it sustains above the downtrend line. Until then, it remains vulnerable to a bear attack.

ADA/USD

The sellers did not even wait for the recovery to reach the 20-day EMA before offloading their positions. Cardano can retest the recent lows of $0.033065 within the next few days. If the bears break the support and make a new year-to-date low, the drop can extend to $0.025954 levels.

ADA/USD

On the other hand, if the bulls manage to hold the support, the ADA/USD pair might start a bottoming process. A trend change will be indicated when the price makes a series of higher highs and higher lows. Until then, the bears are likely to pounce on any pullback.

XMR/USD

The pullback in Monero was short-lived. Failure of the bulls to reach the first overhead resistance of $71 indicates lack of buying interest. The trend remains firmly down with both the moving averages sloping down and the RSI close to the oversold levels.

XMR/USD

A break below the $53 levels will resume the downtrend and can plunge the XMR/USD pair to the next support at $40. If the bulls defend the psychological support of $50, it will indicate buying at lower levels and will increase the probability of a bottom formation. Traders should wait for a new buy setup to form before initiating any new positions.

TRX/USD

The sharp pullback in TRON ended just above the 20-day EMA. Currently, the bears are attempting to push prices towards the recent lows.

TRX/USD

The trend remains down and the bears have successfully defended the first resistance level, which shows that the sellers are in command. If the TRX/USD pair sinks below $0.01089965, the next target on the downside is $0.00844479.

On the other hand, if the bulls manage to hold prices above the Nov. 25 intraday low, the digital currency might enter a consolidation. There are no signs of a trend reversal yet.

The market data is provided by the HitBTC exchange. The charts for the analysis are provided by TradingView.

Altcoins Price Analysis: Dan Larimer Project Hopping Ruffling for EOS Investors

Overly, market participants are apprehensive and after 11 months of straight losses, traders are cautious to commit until clear bull signals print. Stellar Lumens look likely to expand thanks to rejection of lower lows below 15 cents. Meanwhile, the uncertainty around EOSIO and Dan could fuel losses towards $1.5. At the same time, Monero support from Ledger Nano S might buoy prices slowing down losses.

Let’s have a look at these charts:

EOS Price Analysis

Dan Larimer is at it again. Less than one year at EOSIO, he now plans of creating a Bitcoin alternative after identifying some “trade-offs”. While he is clear that he won’t leave his position as CTO at Block One, the EOS market is unsettled.

Larimer is a known innovator and with Steemit, Bitshares and EOS under his belt, community members worried that he might hope to a new project and down his tools at EOS. Their fears have been realized and some are angered by his messages. This project hoping and potential “withdrawal” could end up jeopardizing the project, hurting EOS prices and Dan’s reputation as well.

EOS/USD Price Analysis

Back to price action and sellers are pressing the sell pedal. At spot prices, EOS is down four percent the last day and could bleed more in line with our past EOS/USD trade plan.

Everything else constant, it will be extremely hard for us to recommend longs unless otherwise—and as emphasized before when buyers pulled a quick one—there are price spikes above $4—our immediate resistance level.

From candlestick alignment, it is likely that prices shall drop towards our first targets at $1.5 before recovering towards $4 once BTC prices stabilize.

Litecoin Price Analysis

Atlas AF which describes itself as a “well financed, free, borderless and transparent technology company with offices in the US” now supports Litecoin.

LTC/USD Price Analysis

But even with that, LTC is still down six percent in the last day and struggling against sellers keen on reversing Nov 28 gains.

Though it appears as if buyers are back in contention, a top down approach bins buyers optimism and even if they do, then we must see gains above $35-$40 immediate resistance zone before risk off, aggressive type of traders pour in with targets at $50.

Read: What Does Floyd Mayweather’s Crypto ICO Settlement with the SEC Imply?

From the way price action is set, patience should underpin our trade plan aware that losses below $30 would trigger the next wave of sells with first targets at $20 or less.

Stellar Lumens Price Analysis

XLM/USD Price Analysis

Now that ZCash is available at CoinBase, the community is split. It’s going to be a race and depending on whether XLM or ADA—both coins are in the top 10, we expect the speculation to buoy prices. At the moment, XLM/USD is flat and down 15 percent in the last week.

The fact that prices are also back within a 15 cents consolidation thanks to Nov 28 gains mean bears of Nov 19 are null, reverting our overall plan to neutral.

Also Read: Report: Banks Are More Vulnerable to Terrorist Financing Than Crypto

As laid out before, the only time we shall recommend buys is when Stellar Lumens buyers pump prices above 25 cents and 30 cents resistance levels. For now, none of our trade conditions are live. Therefore, we shall advocate for patience.

Tron Price Analysis

Gaming and decentralization seem to go hand in hand. Tron is a network keen on creating this decentralized blockchain based world entertainment system. Therefore the launch of Tron Arcade and the release of a $100 million fund spread over three years will go a long way in empowering platform developers.

According to Justin Sun—the co-founder of Tron who has never hidden his admiration for games said Tron Arcade is shall play a crucial role in the future of Tron as it will help tackle some of the issues facing gaming—a multi-billion dollar industry.

TRX/USD Price Analysis

On to the charts and TRX is back to green on a weekly basis adding four percent. Though it is down seven percent in the last day, we might as well see gains above 1.5 cents mostly because of the long lower wick of Nov 30 bear bar.

Unless there are strong gains above this resistance line, the TRX/USD will be technically bearish trading within a bear breakout pattern set in motion by Nov 19—20 bears.

If today trend lower then we shall have a retest and most likely bears will resume driving prices towards Jan 24 lows in line with our previous TRX/USD price analysis.

Monero Price Analysis

Ledger Nano S now offer support for Monero (XMR).

XMR/USD Price Analysis

Even with this market boosting support, XMR/USD is grappling with bears, shedding four percent in the last day affirming bears. In line with our previous XMR/USD trade plan, Monero could end up testing $30 or even $15 on the lower side assuming this bear trend persists.

However, if there is a market wide revival and BTC expand then it would most likely lift XMR/USD from current lows above $70 towards $110.

All Charts Courtesy of Trading View

Disclaimer: Views and opinions expressed are those of the author and aren’t investment advice. Trading of any form involves risk and so do your due diligence before making a trading decision.

Estonia to Tighten Rules for Licensed Crypto Companies

Estonia, one of Europe’s most crypto-friendly nations, plans to tighten its licensing regime for cryptocurrency companies. The financial authorities in Tallinn want to introduce stricter regulations for fintech businesses registered in the Baltic country.  

Also read: Binance Terminates Services for Users in Belarus

Regulators to Increase Oversight

The Financial Intelligence Unit, the Estonian regulator issuing the licenses, has made a number of proposals to strengthen the rules for entities dealing with digital assets. The Ministry of Finance is currently preparing draft amendments to the country’s Anti-Money Laundering and Counterterrorist Financing Law, the local news outlet Äripäev reported.

Estonia to Tighten Rules for Licensed Crypto CompaniesThe revisions will be presented to the Council of Ministers for approval and then filed in the Estonian parliament for adoption. The ministry believes the anti-money laundering bureau should be tasked with inspecting all companies that provide services in the sector. The monitoring of their activities should ensure they are stable and maintain impeccable reputations.

Once the new regulations are adopted, crypto businesses registered as Estonian legal entities will be required to keep their headquarters in the country. Companies registered in foreign jurisdictions will be obliged to establish subsidiaries in Estonia.

The upcoming changes have been announced a year after the new Estonian Money Laundering and Terrorist Financing Prevention Act came into force. The act transposed into national law the provisions of the 4th Anti-Money Laundering Directive of the European Union, of which Estonia is a member.

Crypto-Friendly Estonia

Estonia to Tighten Rules for Licensed Crypto CompaniesEstonia is a trailblazer in Europe when it comes to adopting favorable regulations for the cryptocurrency industry. The small Baltic nation became the first country to introduce a licensing regime for companies in the sector. Many crypto businesses have been attracted by the opportunity to operate legally within a European jurisdiction.

Since the adoption of the regulatory framework last year, the Financial Intelligence Unit has licensed close to 1,000 entities. The regulator issues two types of licenses. According to data quoted by the Estonian news outlet Err.ee, 444 wallet providers and 526 cryptocurrency trading platforms are currently licensed to operate in the country.

Estonia is known for its developed e-government infrastructure and unique e-residency program, which provide private individuals and corporate entities with access to fast and efficient services. As news.Bitcoin.com reported recently, the application process for a crypto license takes only about two weeks. Meeting a number of know-your-customer and anti-money laundering requirements is an important precondition for approval.

Estonia is one of several jurisdictions spearheading the adoption of crypto-friendly laws and rules in Europe, along with Switzerland, Belarus, Malta, Gibraltar and the Isle of Man.

What are your expectations about the future of crypto regulations in Estonia and Europe? Share your thoughts in the comments section below.  


Images courtesy of Shutterstock.


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本周留言挖矿榜单:11月26日-11月29日

下列幸运留言、优秀留言的童鞋,请及时来领奖哦。

变更提示

1.应读者建议,从今日起(第99期),即11月16日的留言挖矿,将取消“点赞最高奖”;“优秀留言奖”修改为2名读者,点赞数作为优秀留言的重要参考依据,综合考量得出优秀留言。

2.为广大读者朋友能及时获得反馈,我们将提前在每周六次条汇总本周挖矿榜单。

 01 
第99期:11月26日

文章链接:爱德华·斯诺登:我眼中的比特币和区块链 

小编精选优秀留言:

留言挖矿幸运留言:

 02 
第100期:11月27日

文章链接:比特币史上最大疑案:门头沟事件

小编精选优秀留言:

留言挖矿幸运留言:

无,滚动到下期(下期奖金100元)

 03 
第101期:11月28日

文章链接:区块链的下半场,谁主沉浮?

小编精选优秀留言:

留言挖矿幸运留言:

 04 
第102期:11月29日

文章链接:区块链安全大事件:2个月6起大型黑客攻击,损失超过660万美元

小编精选优秀留言:

留言挖矿幸运留言:

无,滚动到下期(下期奖金100元)

本周五、周六留言挖矿结果暂未得出,将在下周一文末留言以及下周六统一汇总公布。

——End——


亲,给「白话区块链」加个“星标”

   👇 不错过重要推送哦 👇

亲,您点个  再走吧~ 

熊大熊二来了,光头强你的信仰还在么?(下)

上周,我们从区块链自身角度、历史角度、资金角度、交易角度,梳理了区块链的现状

今天,我们将从宏观角度、行业角度、操作角度和学习角度,来看看区块链以及投资者的未来。


 01 
宏观角度

如果你关注了一些财经自媒体公众号,或是一些金融达人的微博,你应该会经常看到类似的一句话“2019,现金为王”

就现状而言,宏观层面确实不怎么乐观:

美股,尤其是以高科技股为首的纳斯达克,从10月份起一路向下;

传说中只涨不跌的一线城市房价,2018年跌掉了20%-30%,而且此类情况不仅限于中国;

传说中只涨不跌的腾讯,2018年跌去了接近一半的市值;

本周大宗商品也未能幸免,原油、螺纹钢等都在暴跌……

总而言之,就是:资产变得不值钱了。这里提到的“资产”,同样也包括比特币。

那么从宏观层面,近两个月有哪些可以关注的事件?

▪G20
宏观层面,最重要的事件应该就是这两天举办的G20峰会,此次峰会达成的某些经济共识,或将极大影响未来金融资本的走势。中美在贸易关系上能否达成共识,短期内将对全球各类投资市场产生较大影响。

Bakkt
2018年11月21日,被视为年内加密货币市场最大希望的Bakkt宣布,其上线时间由今年12月12日延期至2019年1月24日,市场当时也很应景地予以暴跌回应。

Bakkt的目标,是通过比特币实物结算期货,将比特币打造成新一代主流金融产品。大家一直期待传统资金入场,若能够有合法的大规模渠道,Bakkt有望成为第一个带领大量资金入场的选手。所以,不难理解Bakkt延期对于市场的打击。

ETF
最近几年行情一旦有异动,就会被寄予厚望的ETF,就像是个“磨人的小妖精”,每次给了你希望,却又不会直接答应你。

据Coindesk 11月28日报道,美国证券交易委员会(SEC)主席Jay Clayton周二(当地时间11月27日)表示,在解决市场操控问题之前,不会批准加密货币ETF【参考文章:比特币的达摩克利斯之“锤”——ETF(上)比特币的达摩克利斯之“锤”——ETF(下)】。

这真是让业内人望穿秋水。但圈内对于“SEC批准加密货币ETF”这件事还是很有信心的,或许只是时间问题。


 02 
行业角度

V神去年曾“保守地”预言,有90%的爱西欧项目都会归零。

当时很多人并不在意,将该预言当成耳旁风。现在回看,V神还当真是“保守了”。

若现在有人跟你说99%的项目会归零,你信不?

去翻初创企业的成功率,其实数据惨不忍睹。只是去年的“疯牛”行情,让大家选择性无视,将这些数据变成“房间里的大象”。

从上世纪80年代开始,国外就有很多相关研究:在100万家初创公司中,只有6家能最终走到IPO;初创公司第一年的死亡率高达90%,其他一般公司的死亡率为27%;初创公司第一年的失败率为40%,十年内的失败率为90%;50%的小企业会在2年内倒闭,80%的小企业会在5年内倒闭。

我们凭什么认为区块链公司,会有所不同?但就目前的数据而言,也不用那么悲观。

一方面,很多大公司开始布局区块链,包括中国的B-ATJ公司(点击标蓝字母,可参看对应的大厂布局故事)

另一方面,越来越多的资源和人才开始进入区块链行业,尤其是那些原先对区块链及加密货币持怀疑态度的科技金融精英。

关于这一点,某加密货币投资人在推特表示:“当你发现不同行业的聪明人都不约而同去投身某一行业,追随聪明的人的脚步是最笨且最有效的投资方式。当然,首先你要学会区分聪明的投机者 VS 聪明的创业者。”

 03 
操作角度

“股神”巴菲特,曾在2008年跟一个知名对冲基金的合伙人打过一个赌,压注100万美金,赌约10年。赌的什么?巴菲特赌对冲基金无法战胜标普500指数。那个对冲基金合伙人,精心挑选了五只对冲基金,跟巴菲特支持的标普500硬刚。

今年,赌局结束了,在过去的十年里,标普500指数平均年复合收益率7.1%,那精选的5只对冲基金的平均年复合收益率是2.2%。

区块链投资有“标普500”么?如果有的话,或许会是比特币。

一些数字货币投资者,在复盘时发现一个现象:入市后,经过一通操作,无论是赔是赚,貌似都没最初入市时全仓比特币保持不动所获收益高。

正如前段时间流行的那个段子:“一通操作猛如虎,比特只剩0.5。”

不知道你现在对于投资策略,是否有更深刻的见解。需要强调的就是:任何投资决策应该都是你自己深思熟虑的结果。

 04 
学习角度

当前,有一个很奇怪的现象:有些人可以轻易拿出毕生积蓄投资一个自己不熟悉的领域和行业。

区块链投资,是个比股市门槛更高的行业,你最好能懂点儿计算机、经济、政治等各类知识。

从金融角度来看,区块链投资,与股市等传统交易市场并无区别,依旧是“一赚二平七亏”,依旧接近“二八定律”。

有意思的是:大多数人都知道这个定律,却依然在不怎么知情的情况下匆匆入局。唯一能够解释这个现象的,除了贪婪,或许是那个著名的“乌比冈湖效应”(人们总是容易高估自己的实际水平,换句话说,就是“自我拉抬偏差”

现实生活中,充斥着这类现象。比如,据类似的统计实验显示,90%的人认为自己的驾车技术高于平均水平。

市场是残酷的,只有20%的人在赚钱,80%的人其实都在赔钱。

你要做的,或许是抛开自己的“迷之自信”,努力学习,提高认知,争取成为那20%的人。熊市,或许是最佳的学习机会。“投资的本质是认知的变现,你很难赚到看不见的钱!”


 05 
小结

比特币在过去10年,曾经被宣告过300多次“死亡”。最近,开始有声音宣告“区块链”的死亡。或许,这不是第一次,也不会是最后一次。其实,区块链还没有结束,它才刚刚开始。

现在,你还会憧憬区块链的未来吗?快来留言分享吧。

相关/热文


——End——

『声明:本文为白话区块链特约作者「五火球教主供稿,不代表白话区块链立场,亦不构成任何投资意见或建议。

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How Troubled can the Relation between Blockchain and GDPR be?

The Hard Fork Decentralized event will be open from 12 to December 14, and one of the primary discussions the event will be focusing on is related to the concerning relation between blockchain and GDPR.


Permissioned vs Permissionless

The Next Web, a Fintech focused News Hub, is organizing Hard Fork Decentralized, its own blockchain and cryptocurrency event. According to the Agency, apart from focusing in the cryptocurrency industry greatest challenges, the event will also be centering its attention on the relation between blockchain and GDPR and how blockchain can stay compliant with General Data Protection Regulations (GDPR).

There is a battle is going on within the blockchain industry. This battle is opposing two sides that have their own vision of what the future of the blockchain should be. There are those who see private blockchains as a possible solution to several problems while others are completely against this idea as it contrasts with the true nature of the blockchain technology which is based on the notion of decentralization.

Vitalik Buterin also expressed his concerns regarding this issue early this month during the Ethereum annual conference when he said that IBM’s commercial blockchain offerings are “totally not the point…” as he believes blockchain should be open, transparent, and owned by everyone participating in the network.

So, can we actually consider a private ledger a blockchain? Following Vitalik’s notion, many will argue that private or permission blockchain networks are not really blockchains while others are staying ahead of this discussion by defending the idea that this doesn’t matter at all. Permissioned or permissionless, they are both two different forms of the same technology and perhaps one alternative can have a better performance when it comes to staying compliant with the GDPR while the other will find a lot of barriers to complying.

In a way, we cannot completely agree that blockchains controlled by a centralized entity are truly decentralized. While Blockchain puritans are right when they argue that “putting a blockchain inside the metaphorical walls of a corporation seems counter-intuitive” and that was not the original idea of Satoshi Nakamoto’s vision. Nevertheless, in a world that needs to cope with privacy and security and stay GDPR compliant, permissioned ledgers will probably be a way to help with compliance. That means that we will need to find ways for these two forms to cooperate and accept that private blockchains might have a use after all.


The real problem here is that in some cases public blockchains will not be able to retain sensitive data and that might compromise their compliance with GDPR. But on the other hand, public blockchains are immune to censorship and there is no way or would be incredibly difficult, to sanction a non-compliant blockchain. But this takes us to yet another question: how will government’s fine decentralized entities?


How can a decentralized entity be sanctioned?



The EU already referred to this issue and came to the conclusion that private, permissioned blockchains are probably the only way to keep decentralized technology compliant with GDPR. This might come as a hindrance to the technology itself as companies wanting to get into the technology will flee to safer and complaint blockchains.


Even so, there are still much to discuss and permissioned ledgers will certainly not be the only way for companies working in the niche to stay complaint as there will solutions popping out anytime soon.


But the Hard Fork Decentralized event will not only focus on regulation and there will be lots of other topics to be discussed. The event will take place in London on December 12-14. Interested parties can check out the full list of events, which will be hosted by the leading industry companies, and there will be lots and lots of discussions.

BTC/USD Price Analysis: “I want People to Think Binance as a Verb” says CZ

After severe draw downs that has so far clipped investor confidence, the founder of Binance Changpeng Zhao is confident of what next year holds. Of course much has been talked about entry of institutional investors and facilitators—read Fidelity, NASDAQ and others. Though next year might be the year of adoption–and that is the main reason why Binance is expanding, there should be increasing demand in lower time frames. At the moment, that is not happening.

Latest Bitcoin News

Well, the last 11 months has been nothing but one unidirectional move that has seen Bitcoin prices drop +80 percent. From highs of +20,000 to lows of around $3,700, the drain has been relentless.  But even in the midst of this capitulation and doubt, Changpeng Zhao, the co-founder of Binance has some grand plans for the world’s largest exchange by trading volume.

Read: What Is Bitcoin? Crypto Featured as Category on Jeopardy

In a recent interview, he said that his ambition is to turn the Binance into a verb. Just like Google—a noun–was changed into a verb through widespread use, Binance would now that they have plans of collaborating with partners who share the same vision.

Also Read: Bitmain Launches Crypto Index for Investors, Provides Data on 17 Digital Assets

As an exchange that links the traditional fiat system with the future of money while simultaneously creating a market place for digital assets, their aim is to increase avenues through which ordinary users can find ways of investing and even spending their crypto holdings. And with 2019 promising to be a year of adoption thanks to increasing number of institutions keen on diversifying into an emerging asset class and regulators whose main mandate is to protect ordinary investors through policies that make market manipulation risky, next year could be very shaping for Bitcoin.

Nonetheless, before projections are made, we must see prices bouncing off from current floors.

BTC/USD Price Analysis

Weekly Chart

BTC/USD Price Analysis

Thing is—and as reiterated in our previous BTC/USD trade plans, prices are on a strong down trend and from candlestick arrangement alone, it’s a tall order for bulls to instantly change trend. That’s unless of course there is an explosion of trading volumes propelling prices above important resistance levels at $4,700, $5,500 and $6,000 respectively.

For now, the direction of trend has been defined and because BTC/USD is trading within a bear breakout pattern with a whole bear bar printing below the lower limit of then support now resistance at $5,800, every high should technically be a selling opportunity.

Daily Chart

BTC/USD Price Analysis

Thanks to rejection of lower lows on Nov 25—87k versus 42k that was soon confirmed by upsurges of Nov 28—65k versus 60k, it appears as if bulls are in charge. But before we draw quick conclusions, there must be a confirmation of the three-bar bull reversal pattern completed by Nov 28. It is because of this reason why we suggest risk off traders to hold off their trading until after there are solid moves above our immediate buy triggers at $4,700.

Just like in our previous BTC/USD price analysis, our first bull target will be at $5,000 and later $5,800 assuming buyers step up and erase last week’s losses. However, if none of this happens and prices sink below Nov 28 lows to $3,700, odds are BTC could crash towards $3,000.

All Charts Courtesy of Trading View

Disclaimer: Views and opinions expressed are those of the author and aren’t investment advice. Trading of any form involves risk and so do your due diligence before making a trading decision.