BCH算力战引发空头狂欢,比特币24小时暴跌700美元(内附11.13直播中奖名单)

巴比特

服务于区块链创新者

更新声明:本系列数据分析文章不定期更新一次,数据源包括巴比特app、blockchain.info、btc.com、alternative.me、bitinfocharts.com、coinmarketcap.com等,文章中并不提及价格预测,因此不构成投资建议!数字货币市场波动极大,投资者务必量力而行。

比特币暴跌至5650美元,创一年以来新低

BCH算力大战未至,密码货币二级市场倒是提前给出了反应。

距比特币现金(BCH)网络在北京时间11月16日凌晨0时40分的硬分叉大约还有1天时间的时候,空头们便开始蠢蠢欲动,一张据称是“吴忌寒准备与澳本聪应战到底”的图片在朋友圈和币圈群里疯传,蹊跷之处在于,该图中还提到了比特币跌破5000美元这样的价格预测,很显然,这一fake news很可能是出自大空头之手,目的就是渲染恐慌的气氛,以为此后的行动做好铺垫。

根据巴比特app行情页显示,在北京时间11月14日晚上23时52分左右,市场开始向下滑动,至15号凌晨0时20分左右,比特币便跌破了6000美元关口,然而在彼时,空头们的狂欢还只是一个开始,至凌晨4时30分左右,比特币的市场均价已跌至5650美元左右,创下了一年来的新低。

然而在算力战场,比特币网络的全网算力依然为46.54 EH/s,而BCH网络的算力则为4.72 EH/s,较前几日变化并没有太多。

在比特币的带动下,整个密码货币市场似遭遇一场血腥的屠杀一般,多数密码货币出现了10%以上的日跌幅。

而在明日凌晨算力战正式开打的时候,又会出现什么样的场景呢?就目前来看,这场战争的获胜方就只有空头,其余无论是矿工、现货持有者、比特大陆还是CSW,都将被这场残酷的战争给波及到。

图1(过去24小时,前10密码货币表现,数据来源:巴比特app)

多数板块交易活跃度上升

 

查看各区块链板块的表现,我们发现,24小时内,货币板块的交易量达到159.8252亿美元,分布式账本板块的交易量达到20.0341亿美元,匿名货币板块交易量达到3.5114亿美元,分叉币板块交易量为11.6996亿美元,跨链/侧链板块交易量为0.8817亿美元,资产管理板块交易量为2.9588亿美元,广告娱乐板块交易量为1.2702亿美元,平台币板块交易量为0.5872亿美元,物联网板块交易量为0.4483亿美元,人工智能板块交易量为0.6016亿美元,社交通讯板块交易量为0.2384亿美元,金融服务板块交易量为0.1398亿美元,数据管理板块交易量为0.1096亿美元,防伪溯源板块交易量为0.0211亿美元。

图2:(板块成交量(单位/万美元) ,根据24小时巴比特app数据统计)

各板块的24小时涨跌幅情况分别为:

图3:(巴比特app各板块24小时涨跌幅情况)

今日的行情当中,表现最糟的板块当属分叉币板块,其其整体涨跌幅为(-17.55%),其次分别为数据管理(-17.18%)、人工智能(-14.82%)、物联网(-14.09%)、防伪溯源(-13.45%)、广告娱乐(-13.34%)、资产管理(-13.05%)、匿名货币(-12.94%)、分布式账本(-12.67%)、平台币(-12.54%)、跨链/侧链(-12.28%)、社交通讯(-12.07%)、金融服务(-10.76%)、货币支付(-7.8%)。

图4:(热门板块3日涨跌幅统计,数据来源:巴比特app)

 

BTC链上交易活跃度较昨日下降2.51%,ETH下降0.49%

过去24小时,比特币日交易数为285275,较昨日数据下降7345 ,降幅为2.51%,链上总交易金额为1,185,474 BTC(约合67.73亿美元) ,平均每笔比特币交易价值为23,705美元;

以太坊日交易数为579,316,较昨日数据下降2865,降幅达到0.49%,链上总交易金额为3,062,436 ETH(约合5.55亿美元),平均每笔以太坊交易价值约为958.76美元。

近几日,无论是比特币还是以太坊,它们的链上总交易金额都创下了一年以来的新高。

图5:(比特币近七日链上交易数,数据来源:bitinfocharts.com)

图6:(比特币近七日活跃地址数,数据来源:https://www.blockchain.com/zh-cn/charts/n-unique-addresses)

 

请注意,对于数字货币市场接下来的行情, 以上数据只能用作参考,不能完全将其作为判断依据,投资者需谨慎操作。

11月13日,2018年11月13日晚七点,Ruff CEO / Ruff Chain 创始人Roy Li (厉晹) 做客巴比特直播间七点小喵有约,与我们探讨了区块链和物联网深度结合起来的无限想象,并为我们送出了12万5千Ruff的大礼,由于社区粉丝太积极,参与抽奖人数很多,导致很多小伙伴没抽到大礼,在此先道声抱歉,更要恭喜那些获得奖励的小伙伴们,想要看这些幸运儿是谁,可以点击“阅读原文”在评论区查看哦!


PoW最早可追溯到1993年,正式出现则是在1999年《Proofs of Work and Bread Pudding Protocols》论文里,但是PoS不一样,它是个完完全全的新概念!出于对比特币挖矿能源浪费方面的考量,大家都在思考:有没有一种方法既能实现点对点加密货币的设计,又能不消耗能源,2011年间,Proof of Stake的概念开始在比特币爱好者的圈子里出现,POS是这一种完美设计吗?本期喵懂区块链带你详解区块链共识机制——POS。

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SEC Announces Enforcement Actions Against ICOs As Crypto Markets Tumble

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Yesterday (Nov 14th) the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) released their annual enforcement report, revea;omg dozens of actions that the regulatory agency took against ICOs and digital assets this year.

News of these enforcement actions were not made public until the details were announced in the following Tweet:

The fine print of the report indicated that many of the ICOs in question are still ongoing and operational, which is not unusual in such cases.

Unless an investment is clearly fraudulent and criminal, the SEC will typically allow the businesses they have penalized to continue operating and generating revenue, but the balance sheets of these companies often take significant damage because a large portion of that revenue disappears due to fines.

The report states that:

When warranted, the Division has recommended enforcement actions to the Commission in matters involving ICOs. As of the close of FY 2018, the SEC had brought over a dozen stand alone enforcement actions involving digital assets and ICOs. While many of these cases have involved allegations of fraud, the Division also has pursued enforcement actions to ensure compliance with the registration requirements of the federal securities laws. In the past year, the Division has opened dozens of investigations involving ICOs and digital assets, many of which were ongoing at the close of FY 2018

 

Recent SEC Activity

At last week’s Fintech Week Conference in D.C, William Hinman, director of Corporation Finance for the SEC, announced that the agency will finally be issuing “plain English guidance” on ICOs. After years of keeping crypto investors in the dark, the SEC has recently started imposing standard financial regulations on digital assets.

Instead of laying down guidelines for people to follow however,  the agency seems to be classifying blockchain businesses in ways that they can be fined under traditional laws. While the industry has yet to see clear guidelines,  it is beginning to see enforcement.

Last Thursday, the SEC announced that it had settled charges against Zachary Coburn, the founder of decentralized exchange EtherDelta. The agency claimed that the decentralized exchange “operated as an unregistered national securities exchange,” a charge that left many exchanges and blockchain based projects in fear of similar action.

It is possible too that this regulatory confusion played at least some role in this week’s massive sell-off in crypto markets, in which many coins lost 20% of their value or more, with bitcoin (BTC) dropping below $6,000 for the first time in several months.

“Blockchain” Mentions in Corporate America Are Down, but Is the Crypto Fever Really Over?

According to a November 11, 2018 report from Axios, S&P 500 executives are dropping blockchain buzzwords less on earnings calls and during presentations to analysts and investors, but it doesn’t necessarily mean that the blockchain fever is over for corporate America.

Number of Blockchain Mentions Falls as Much as 80 Percent

The value of digital currencies might not be the only thing that has seen a steady decline throughout 2018. The prospect of incorporating blockchain technology or cryptocurrency into businesses excited investors and drove up share prices for companies such as Kodak, Long Blockchain, and Chanticleer Holdings, but the hype wasn’t all that long-lived.

At its peak in the second quarter of 2018, “blockchain” was mentioned 173 times, according to an analysis of company transcripts from all of the S&P 500 companies. The number has since fallen as much as 80%, with the lowest number of blockchain mentions recorder as of November 8, 2018.

It seems that Bitcoin was never as popular as a buzzword as blockchain was, receiving only 68 mentions at its peak in the first quarter of 2018. As of November 8, Bitcoin was mentioned only 11 times.

Blockchain Technology Is in It for the Long Run

According to Martha Bennett, the principal analyst at Forrester Research, 2018 will be the year of reckoning for blockchain initiatives. In a November 9 report, she said that the company expected to see some blockchain projects stopped that should never have been started in the first place.

However, when commenting on how she saw  2018 shaping up in the blockchain technology arena, Bennett said: “the visionaries will forge ahead, those hoping for immediate industry and process transformation will give up.”

The reduction in blockchain mentions doesn’t necessarily mean that the support the technology is getting is also dwindling. One of the largest tech companies in the world, IBM, which was responsible for over 70 mentions of the word “blockchain” in the first quarter of 2017, is also one of the biggest investors in the technology. IBM currently employs a 1,500 blockchain-specific staff, and has reportedly partnered with Walmart to develop a supply-chain solution, CNBC reported.

According to Forrester Research, companies that have a deep understanding of the technology and its transformational potential, in the long run, will continue to forge ahead, unbothered by the hype that seems to be more volatile than the market it surrounds.

Singapore’s KuCoin Hits Funding Target Despite Bearish Markets

Singapore based KuCoin crypto exchange has raised $20 million in its first round of financing. The news comes as cryptocurrencies continue to get battered in a year that has seen the market crash by over 70%.

$20 Million Raised in First Round

According to the official announcement the series A round of financing was led by global venture capitalists including IDG Capital, Matrix Partners and Neo Global Capital. KuCoin opened in September 2017 and has now achieved over 5 million registered users, it touts itself as “The People’s Exchange”.

The platform stated that it would be leveraging the strengths of each of its investment partners. IDG Capital has the marketing power, Matrix Partners will be providing resources and support, and Neo Global Capital has the eye for investing in emerging tech startups.

Partner at IDG Capital, Young Guo, stated “IDG Capital has been investing in crypto-related companies since 2012 and sees the potential in the blockchain industry as a world changing technology, and we want to continue to be at the forefront of this movement to ensure that legitimate projects led by teams with integrity get noticed.”

According to the release, the funding will be used to launch the KuCoin 2.0 platform early next year which offers a raft of improvements and features over the existing exchange. In addition to the new platform KuCoin wants to increase customer support staff to offer “concierge-level service to all traders”.

Following the likes of Binance and Huobi, KuCoin aims at global expansion and setting up shop in other countries and target markets. Research and development will also be taking a share of the funding as the company looks into new cryptocurrency ventures and legitimate blockchain projects with real-world application. A blockchain training center is also on the cards for KuCoin as it aims to educate and train blockchain talents.

Michael Gan, who posted the update, said;

“I have always believed that one day everything will function with blockchain technology, and we are continuing to strive for this realization. Based on our newly-formed partnership, we are aiming to take further steps to make KuCoin the best exchange available,” before adding “This has been a memorable year for KuCoin. We have faced emerging challenges but have continuously succeeded in facing and overcoming them as we have evolved.”

Asia’s crypto exchanges are showing no sign of slowing up even if the market has done so. It is full steam ahead for the major players such as Singapore’s KuCoin which still sees a very bright future in cryptocurrencies.

 

Image from Shutterstock

Hedge Fund Manager Brian Kelly Explains November 14th’s ‘Crypto Market Meltdown’

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On Wednesday (14 November 2018), Brian Kelly, the founder and CEO of digital asset investment firm BKCM LLC, explained yesterday’s “Crypto Market Meltdown”, which led to double-digit percentage losses for most of the major cryptocurrencies including Bitcoin, which sank to $5,569, its lowest price in over a year.

Yesterday, Kelly, on CNBC’s “Fast Money” show was asked by host Melissa Lee to explain the reasons for the crypto markets going into “meltdown mode.”

Kelly started by pointing out that Bitcoin Cash (BCH) was about to a “hard fork”, i.e. an update to the protocol software “such that the software validating according to the old rules will see the blocks produced according to the new rules as invalid,” which means that “all nodes meant to work in accordance with the new rules need to upgrade their software.” And if “one group of nodes continues to use the old software while the other nodes use the new software, a split can occur.”

“Now, when you do a software upgrade, everybody usually agrees, but in this particular case, everybody is not agreeing about what that software upgrade should be. So, we’ve got ourselves a Crypto Civil War… and that has people in the market concerned.

So, what happened today? People are concerned that both Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash networks might slow down, they might not work as well, that software upgrade might not go through, or if it does go through, we’ll end up with some chaos.

People started selling. That triggered stops. Everybody got concerned. And that’s what happened today.”

However, Kelly himself was not worried:

“In my view, very short term type of event. I think it’s probably an opportunity. In fact, we did some buying at my fund today.”

Lee then asked guest Meltem Demirors, the Chief Strategy Officer at CoinShares, if “there was a catalyst to the upside” after this “short-term selling event.” She answered:

“Absolutely… We had six months of Bitcoin and a lot of other assets trading sideways, and I think there were just a number of events that piled up that led to this mass release, the sell-off… My view is that it’s probably some institutions, some funds, deleveraging, taking some money off the table. Any time there are forks, things tend to trade weird and strange. So, I think people are trying to take some risk off the table. There are a number of exciting events coming up. In December, ICE’s new subsidiary, Bakkt, is going to launch… And then, in January, we’ll see Fidelity new crypto custody arm starting to operate.”

According to data from CryptoCompare, BTC is currently trading at $5,637 (down 1.81% in the past 24-hour period) and BCH is trading at $444.89 (down 8.74% in the past 24-hour period).

The Bitcoin Cash hard fork is scheduled to take place on November 15th 2018 around 16:40 UTC.

Featured Image Credit: Photo via Pexels.com

Bitmain Denies Reports That CEO Jihan Wu Was Ousted From Its Board

Bitcoin mining giant Bitmain has denied widely circulated reports that its co-CEO, Jihan Wu, has been ousted from the board of BitMain Technologies Holding Company, the entity currently seeking to go public on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX).

The news first emerged on a Chinese cryptocurrency media site on Monday, which suggested that Wu and several other executive directors had left their positions at a different entity, Beijing Bitmain Technology Limited.

The report further cited a lawyer, not affiliated to Bitmain, who said the change meant Wu would no longer have executive power over Bitmain’s operations. However, the report did not state clearly whether that comment was referring to Beijing Bitmain Technology or the holding company.

Various media reports have subsequently cited the news and alleged that Wu is no longer at the board of the holding company and hence has no voting power on the firm’s management.

Based on a Chinese business registration database, Beijing Bitmain Technology did record board changes on Nov. 7.

Responding to a CoinDesk enquiry, however, a Bitmain representative said the board change was solely at the subsidiary company. Regarding BitMain Technologies Holding Company, the representative said: “To be clear, there is no change in the board structure there.”

Board reshuffle

The structure reshuffle at the Beijing subsidiary shows that Ketuan “Micree” Zhan, who previously served as the chairman of the board, has now become an executive director of the subsidiary.

At the same time, Wu’s role has changed from board director to supervisor, while other directors including Zhaofeng Zhao and Yuesheng Ge are no longer on the list of board directors, as per the database.

The company further stated in an email response:

“As is standard listing practice, Bitmain is restructuring its board and group structure, to ensure it meets regulatory requirements on its road to IPO. This is to simplify the board structure to facilitate its management. There have been no board departures and co-founder Jihan Wu will continue to lead the company as co-chair, together with co-chief executive officer, Micree Zhan.”

Based on Bitmain’s draft IPO prospectus, there are currently seven members of the holding company board. Zhan and Wu both serve as co-founder, executive director, co-chairman and co-chief executive officer. Ge and Luyao Liu both serve as executive directors.

The board also includes three independent non-executive directors, not affiliated to the holding company. The listing rules and guidance provided by the HKEX requires that any IPO issuer “must appoint independent non-executive directors representing at least one-third of the board.”

Voting rights

Based on Bitmain’s draft IPO prospectus, for now, both Zhan and Wu seem to be far from losing any voting power, as claimed in some reports. The holding company adopted weighted voting rights (WVR) – a dual-share structure – after being given the green light by the HKEX in April after a years-long debate on the issue.

The prospectus stated Bitmain’s share capital comprises Class A and Class B shares, adding:

“Each Class A share entities the holder to exercise one vote, and each Class B share entitles the holder to exercise ten votes, respectively, on any resolution tabled at our Company’s general meetings, except for resolutions with respect to a limited number of Reserved Matters, in relation to which each share is entitled to one vote.”

Currently, Zhan and Wu hold about 3.9 billion and 2.2 billion Class B shares, respectively, although the firm has yet to indicate what percentages those amounts represent of the company’s entire Class B share ownership.

The HKEX had long adhered to a “one share, one vote” approach, a policy that prompted Chinese internet giant Alibaba to choose the New York Stock Exchange over Hong Kong when it went public last year.

The Hong Kong exchange later altered the rule in a bid to attract more technology startups, as the dual-share structure is popular among major international tech firms such as Facebook and Google.

BitMain is the fourth company to have adopted the WVR approach for an IPO since the HKEX changed the rule in April.

Jihan Wu image via CoinDesk

Bitcoin Price Watch: BTC/USD Breakdown Looks Like Real Deal

Key Points

  • Bitcoin price nosedived below the $6,150 and $5,650 support levels against the US Dollar.
  • There is a short term contracting triangle formed with resistance at $5,600 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken).
  • The price could correct higher, but upsides are likely to face sellers near $5,615 or $5,815.

Bitcoin price declined heavily towards $5,400 against the US Dollar. BTC/USD may recover a few points, but upsides are likely to be capped by $5,800.

Bitcoin Price Analysis

Yesterday, we discussed a possible sell scenario below $6,350 in bitcoin price against the US Dollar. The BTC/USD pair broke down and nosedived below a few important supports such as $6,150, $6,000 and $5,650. The decline was such that the price traded below $5,400 and formed a new yearly low at $5,336. Later, there was a minor upside correction and the price moved above the $5,500 level.

However, the price seems to be struggling near the $5,600-5,615 zone. Moreover, the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $6,295 high to $5,336 low is preventing gains. More importantly, there is a short term contracting triangle formed with resistance at $5,600 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. If there is an upside break above $5,615, the price could test the next major resistance at $5,750-5,600. Besides, the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $6,295 high to $5,336 low is near $5,815. Therefore, if there is a recovery, the price is likely to face sellers near $5,615 or $5,815.

Bitcoin Price Analysis BTC Chart

Looking at the chart, bitcoin price decline below $5,800 looks real. There could be more declines below $5,400 after the current correction wave is complete. The main support below $5,400 awaits near $5,100.

Looking at the technical indicators:

Hourly MACD – The MACD for BTC/USD is slowly moving in the bullish zone.

Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI is currently recovering towards the 40 level.

Major Support Level – $5,400

Major Resistance Level – $5,815

永别了,算力战!

相比于人类过去“茹毛饮血的吃相”,算力战“非常温文尔雅了”。

朋友圈中一位资深币民感叹道:“BCH硬分叉正在导致市场塌方。”


昨日下午至今天凌晨,数字货币市场迎来全线跳水,数字货币市场总市值跌破2000亿美元关口,目前1900亿美元关口徘徊。截至发稿前,根据火星币优行情图,数字货币市场风向标比特币价格则在5800美元左右。

 

截图来源:火星币优


BCH硬分叉引发行业担忧的同时,双方“争夺”社区控制权态势却没有丝毫缓和,竞争趋于白热化。在两条链前途未卜的情况下,双方支持者正在用行动(金钱)证明自己看好哪一边。Bitcoin Cash SV (以下简称“BCHSV”)预分叉市场价格直追Bitcoin Cash ABC (以下简称“BCHABC”),且双方差距不断缩小。


因为投资者想要获得“BCH硬分叉糖果”,此前BCH价格一路高涨(目前在回调)。为了让用户可以提前支持自己选择的链,一些交易所开启了预分叉交易市场。


预分叉市场不仅可以让交易者和投资者对分叉结果进行双倍下注,而且还从侧面反映了一些有价值的情报——市场认为哪条链具有更高的经济可行性。


根据Coinmarketcap网站上的数据,自BCH预分叉市场开启以来,BCHABC价格走势不断下跌,而与此同时,BCHSV的价格则在最近一段时间一路上扬。截至发稿前,BCHABC价格为251.41美元/枚,BCHSV价格为178.42美元/枚。

 

BCHABC预分叉市场走势


BCHSV预分叉市场走势


而在更早前,交易者对BCHABC保留其价值的能力更有信心。彼时,BCHABC / USDC交易价为535美元,高出BCHSV/ USDC价格(90美元)近6倍。


面对市场气势不断高涨的BCHSV阵营,BCHABC阵营会落下风吗?还有,经此一役,BCH的未来将会走向何方?

“磨刀霍霍”交战双方


笔者不太喜欢用“社区阵营”这个词来表述硬分叉的双方,用“利益集团”可能更为贴切。后面会解释为什么这么表述。


决定硬分叉利益集团双方命运的关键是算力。一开始,BCHABC利益集团在社区里支持率很高,但是,局势正在发生变化。过去几天,大量算力开始偏向BCHSV利益集团,算力上逐渐占到优势。


据Coin Dance估计,大约有75%到80%的矿工都支持BCHSV,相比之下BCHABC只有约15%到27%的矿工支持。

 

(BCH算力分布图,图片来源:CoinDance)

CSW多次表示,BCHSV矿工将用他们超强的算力优势来攻击BCHABC区块链。


值得一提的是除了CSW外,BCHS V支持者CashPay Solutions宣布推出一个矿池SharkPool,其目标是攻击那些他们认为不应该存在的竞争币和BCH分叉,包括BCHABC。


一位业内分析师表示,“虽然BCHSV的支持率在不断攀升,但目前大约只有比特币10%。矿工们很可能因为盈利能力不足,而选择支持BCHABC的利益集团。”


这句话的言外之意是,为了赢取这场战争BCHBAC版本铁杆支持者比特大陆,很可能在短期内把旗下BTC矿池(BCH和BTC的算力可以任意切换)算力增加到BCH矿池。如果这一操作可以实现的话,BCHABC利益集团将远远把BCHSV利益集团甩在身后。


但在接受媒体采访时,CSW说道:“我们就是有钱。吴忌寒以为他能够控制算力,而我们——有的只是钱。我们还会让加密货币交易所无法交易比特币现金,直到吴忌寒认败。”CSW的想法是通过够买大量算力的方法,将BCHABC扼杀在摇篮里。


BCH资深开发者姜和平对CSW购买算力的成本提出了质疑。“购买算力相对是比较好操作的,要大量购买并且持续进行的话,需要的成本太高了。每T购买成本平均按500人民币算的话,1P算力需要50万,1E算力需要5亿,CSW方明确展现过的算力在1E左右,如果是租用算力的话短期成本会低一些,但周期一长成本也很高。”


与此相对的是,此前有媒体报道,为了赢取算力战的胜利,比特大陆旗下的蚂蚁矿池密集约谈了新疆几乎全部的矿场,加起来约有9万台矿机。


另外,为了防止BCHSV的攻击导致主链的混乱,近期BCHABC社区内部有人提出,修改现有的POW算法以防止BCHSV利益集团发动的攻击。据悉,一旦算力发生改变,原本SHA256 ASIC矿工就无法在这一网络上挖矿,起到变相保护BCHABC网络安全的目的。


对于即将到来的BCH硬分叉的影响人们的看法莫衷一是。


比特币耶稣Roger Ver认为,很有可能就像2000年的“千年虫”恐慌一样,不会轰轰烈烈,而是继续前行。


另一些人则表示,此次硬分叉将会导致用户投资的混乱,以及BCH价格的不合理上涨,这些因素可能会损害数字货币在主流用户心目中的形象,这一点从币价波动上已然显现出来。


 

算力“厮杀”会是一场无限游戏?


从目前态势来看,BCH硬分叉似乎没有停止的迹象,双方都“磨刀赫赫”想消灭对方。分析人士指出,BCH硬分叉将带来三种可能的结果:


1.  BCHSV 基于现有的算力优势,向BCHABC实施51%攻击,这可能迫使BCHABC调动BTC算力对坑,最终反向实施51%攻击,造成两败俱伤的局面;

2.  分叉后其中一条公链可能因为挖矿和用户人数不构,无法长时间稳定出块,逐渐消亡;

3.  两条链各自独立运营,现有的BCH资产将出现较大异动,BCH及分叉币未来短时间存在大概率波动的风险,甚至可能诱发行业性普遍波动。


不过,回到到BCH硬分叉的本身,这件事到底有什么意义或许更加值得我们去思考。


我们先来看一张比特币“家族”硬分叉的图谱。


自比特币诞生以来,经历的分叉次数可以说是非常频繁了。不仅如此,其分叉币也在不断进行分叉,因此被人戏称“比特币有很多子孙。”

 

比特币硬分叉图谱


基于这样的现象,有人提出这样的观点:比特币硬分叉将会是一场无限游戏,这是POW机制下无可避免的。


在回答这个问题之前,首先我们要明白此次硬分叉本质是什么。目前市面上很多文章的表述为“社区共识分裂”,更为确切的说应该是社区内部利益集团的纷争,为了争夺社区统治权的“内战”。时光就像轮子,人的本性不会改变,从前发生过的事必然会再度发生。


从挖矿组织模式上,单独矿工为了赚取更多的比特币,逐渐开始联合起来,演变为矿工联合挖矿的矿池。换言之,各大矿池就是矿工为了自身利益联合起来的利益集团,而CSW和吴忌寒就好比是矿工们选择出来的“带头大哥”。他们为各自旗下支持的矿工负责。双方利益集团因为分叉所提出的中本聪信念、原教旨主义等口号,和三国里曹操的“挟天子以令诸侯”没有本质上区别。


这一点,一位美国区块链公司创始人就明确的表示,CSW及其同伴正在BCH网络上实现全面统治的攻击计划,一旦CSW赢得BCH硬分叉之战,其最终目标将是攻击BTC网络。


至于未来硬分叉会不会一直持续下去的问题,笔者认为,在可以预见的未来,硬分叉可能不会一直持续,因为不符合矿工们的利益。当社区内部分叉的利益和稳定的利益在一个平衡点上,一直分叉的态势会收止。另外,经过此次硬分叉后,BCH社区内部应该是 “稳定压倒一切”的声音更大一点,否则,就不会有人提出修改POW算法了。


从另外一个更高地维度看此次事件,算力战反映人类文明在逐步往前进步。区块链出现使得人们从物理世界加速迁移到了虚拟世界,过去物理世界解决争端通过“消灭异己肉身”的方式可能会逐渐演化成“算力消灭”这种更温和的方式。


相比于人类过去“茹毛饮血的吃相”,算力战“非常温文尔雅了”。

 作者:坎村,本文系火星财经原创文章,转载请后台留言。添加微信huyalu08,加入火星财经读者交流群,让我们产生更有价值的互动和连接。


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Top Crypto Exchange Binance Adds Circle’s USD Coin in Latest Stablecoin Support Move

Major cryptocurrency exchange Binance announced it would list Circle’s USD-pegged stablecoin USD Coin (USDC) in a blog post Nov. 15, with deposits opening immediately.

USDC, which the financial services company announced in May this year and released in September, is one of an increasing number of cryptocurrencies notionally tied 1:1 with a major fiat currency.

Binance is not the first major platform to list USDC, U.S. exchange Coinbase supporting the asset since the end of last month.

“For increased transparency, USDC has engaged a top-ranking auditing firm to release monthly balance attestations of the corresponding USDC and USD balances held/issued,” Binance adds in its statement today.

The exchange also noted that trading for USDC/BNB and USDC/BTC trading pairs will begin Nov. 17.

Exchanges across the world have stepped up efforts to support fiat-backed stablecoins as more and more are issued, Cointelegraph reporting on how the currently world’s largest crypto exchange OKEx as well as major competitor Huobi recently opted to list four USD stablecoins at once.

Binance has not been shy about its enthusiasm for stablecoins, CEO Changpeng Zhao saying he “hoped more” would surface when the exchange added Paxos’ USD-pegged asset in September.

“Regulated stable coins [sic] serve as a middle ground where regulators maintain control, but the token also offers far more freedom than traditional fiat for users,” he wrote on Twitter at the time, adding:

“Hope more will copy/follow/improve, and for other fiat currencies too.”

Binance is currently the world’s second largest cryptocurrency exchange by 24-hour trade volumes, seeing over $1.5 billion in trades on the day to press time.