Top Analysts Look At Past Bitcoin Price Cycles To Predict the Return of Volatility

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Top Analysts Look At Past Bitcoin Price Cycles To Predict the Return of Volatility

top-analysts-look-at-past-bitcoin-price-cycles-to-predict-the-return-of-volatility

The cryptocurrency bear market continued in October, causing these innovative assets to trend lower as they fluctuated within a modest range.

Investors have adopted a “‘wait and see’ approach,” noted analyst Joe DiPasquale, which has caused several of these digital assets to trade range-bound.

Several major cryptocurrencies suffered losses during the month, and the broader digital currency market lost value. However, these declines were modest compared to those of several other periods.

The overall digital currency market lost close to 8% during the month, according to the MVIS CryptoCompare Digital Assets 100 Index (MVDA), a key benchmark based on the value of the top 100 largest digital assets.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin held up reasonably well, peaking at $7,234.83 roughly halfway through the month, a roughly 9.8% increase from the digital asset’s starting price of $6,589.36, additional CryptoCompare data reveals. Bitcoin later retreated, erasing its gains for the month and closing the period 3.9% lower at $6,332.24.

Bitcoin Cash

Bitcoin cash, a fork of the original bitcoin, did not fare as well, experiencing some notable fluctuations and for the most part following a downward trend. The altcoin fell more than 20% in October, finishing the month at $424.16 after starting the period at $534.33.

XRP

XRP, the digital token created by Ripple’s founders, also suffered a rough month, losing more than 30% of its value in a matter of weeks. The digital asset’s price dropped to as little as $0.3761 on October 11, roughly 35% below its price of $0.5767 on October 1. The XRP later rebounded, cutting some of its losses but still finishing the month down 21.7% at $0.4513.

Ether

Ether, the second-largest digital currency by market capitalization (market cap) at the time of report, also suffered some notable losses, declining more than 18% during the first few weeks of October.

As a result, the price of ether fell to $186.88 on October 11, compared to $229.09 at the start of the month. The digital currency proceeded to rebound in the coming weeks, finishing the period at $197.41, a 13.8% loss for the month.

EOS

EOS, a digital currency linked to a platform used for decentralized applications, had a relatively stable month, experiencing modest declines during October. The EOS digital asset fell to $5.00 on October 11, down more than 11% from its opening price of $5.65.

The digital currency then recovered, eliminating some of its losses and finishing the month at $5.25. At this price, it was down more than 7% for the month.

Crypto Bear Market

At this point, the question of everyone’s mind is “When will the bear market in digital currencies end?”

The broader market trend could last another 12-18 months, predicted Arthur Hayes, co-founder and CEO of Seychelles-based cryptocurrency exchange BitMEX, told Yahoo Finance UK.

When explaining this forecast, he pointed to past bear markets.

“I’m just basing it off my previous experience. I started in bitcoin in 2013 when the price went from $250 to $1,300 and then 2014 to 2015 was sort of the nuclear bear market. Price crashed, volume crashed — very, very difficult to make money.”

When asked about this prediction by CryptoGlobe, most analysts disagreed. One market observer in particular who did agree with Hayes’ forecast of a sustained bear market was Eric Ervin, CEO of Blockforce Capital.

“We agree with the overall sentiment of Arthur’s comment,” said Ervin. Our current bear market has not been unusually long, he asserted. Ervin added:

Since 2010, there have been 4 bull cycles followed by 4 bear cycles. The average bull market lasts 449 days, and bear markets have lasted an average of 306 days, a ratio of 1.47. The last bull market lasted 818 days, so by this methodology our bear market length should be about 557 days, or an additional 241 days to the current 316 day bear market.

Cryptocurrency bull vs bear cycles

“The previous bitcoin bull markets were caused by both speculation and believers, and we feel confident that the next catalyst for a bull market will be institutional adoption,” he noted.

Optimistic Predictions

Other analysts offered rosier views on the digital currency markets. DiPasquale, CEO of cryptocurrency fund of hedge funds BitBull Capital, described bitcoin’s “stability around the $6,000 level” as a “great sign,” emphasizing that it gives the digital asset “plenty of room to shoot up in positive market conditions.”

“As for the bear market lasting another 12 – 18 months, we don’t believe that the market is going to follow such a schedule,” he stated.

DiPasquale emphasized that the market’s future direction “depends on positive developments, and the next couple of months are going to be interesting due to the launch of Bitcoin settled futures, new custody services, more institutional investments flowing into crypto and progress in terms of ETF proposals.”

Technical Analysis

Digital currencies could break out of their relative malaise soon, at least according to technical analysis performed by Jon Pearlstone, publisher of the newsletter CryptoPatterns.

“October through December are usually the most volatile time period for most markets (see most 2017 crypto charts as a good example) so timing says we will see a move out of the current price range and increased volatility sooner than later,” he noted.

“When the current price range breaks ‘for real’ expect strong volume and high volatility with the first upside target at $7250 and a test of $5000 if we break down below 2018 lows,” said Pearlstone.

Sentiment Data

Another helpful resource for predicting the market’s future movements is sentiment data, which can be calculated by culling information from platforms like Twitter and determining whether it is positive or negative.

Cryptocurrency analytics platform The TIE supplied this exact information, which is forward-looking and predictive in nature.

“We generated monthly sentiment scores from 0-100 and we charted out the correlation between the change in monthly sentiment vs. the change in overall crypto market cap,” explained Joshua Frank, co-founder of The TIE. We “saw an extremely strong correlation between the two variables,” he added.

Cryptocurrency Sentiment DataSource: The TIE

Frank stated:

“For October we saw a 42% increase in sentiment meaning that we are predicting positive price movement in the overall Crypto market in November. The correlation between the change in coin sentiment and change in overall market cap is greater than .5 which is tremendously high.”

As for whether digital currencies will break free of their malaise in November, only time will tell. One thing we do know is that countless eyes will be watching.

Coinsource, Inc. Granted Virtual Currency License by New York Regulators

Coinsource, Inc., a leading bitcoin teller machine (BTM) operator, has become the first of such firms in the world to be granted the infamous New York BitLicense, according to a press release by the New York State Department of Financial Services (DFS) on November 1, 2018.

Coinsource Gets DFS Greenlight

Coinsource, a BTM operator that handles 40 bitcoin kiosks in New York, has been approved by the DFS to operate in the state as a registered business.

As stated in the DFS press release, the operations of the firm have been comprehensively and rigorously screened, to ensure it’s in line with the relevant financial regulations including anti-money laundering (AML) and know-your-customer (KYC) requirements, compliance with the DFS transaction monitoring and cybersecurity regulations and more.

“Today’s approval is a further step in implementing strong regulatory safeguards and effective risk-based controls while encouraging the growth of financial innovation,” DFS Superintendent, Maria. T. Vullo.

With the latest development, Coinsecure has now become the first BTM operator and the twelfth firm to date, to secure the somewhat elusive license. Per the Coinsource team, its application has been under review by the New York regulators since three years ago and finally getting the much sought-after license represents a massive feat for the firm. Commenting on the development, Coinsource general counsel, Arnold Spencer revealed that:

“It’s been a long, involved process. The initial application was filed in 2015 and since then what we’ve seen is a great deal of diligence on NYDFS part, really pushing us to both explain and even improve our policies and procedures.”

Fostering Bitcoin Adoption

Founded in 2015 when the price of the pioneer cryptocurrency had yet to hit the moon, Coinsource is arguably the world’s largest bitcoin teller machine operator, with more than 200 BTMs spread across various locations in the United States and over 20 staff in its employ.

Coinsource is hoping to spread adoption by making it easy for cryptocurrency investors to buy or sell bitcoin for fiat money via its touchscreen kiosks.

To use the Coinsecure BTM, a first time user is required to go through a simple KYC process which requires them sending the relevant bank details and other documents like a copy of their driver’s license, a selfie, and their mobile phone number to a specific cryptocurrency exchange.

While the American BTM ecosystem is booming, the same can’t be said of some other jurisdictions. As reported by BTCManager on October 25, 2018, Uncocoin co-founder Harish BV was arrested by India’s cybercrime police for erecting a bitcoin teller machine in the state.

V神否认自己将退出以太坊开发;中国台湾修订反洗钱法案以规范数字货币交易

Top line

今日头条

 中国台湾修订反洗钱法案以规范数字货币交易

 巴西联邦税务局计划每月收取与加密货币资产相关的运营报告

 比特币期货净空头头寸增至1077手合约

 央行2018金融稳定报告首次出现完整的加密资产专题

 V神否认自己将退出以太坊开发

Market trends

市场动态

注1CBT20是指24小时内市值排名前20的数字货币。

注2图2是数字货币市场总市值在24小时内的走势变化,该走势反应了当前大盘的总体表现情况。

注3图中数据来源于coinmarketcap。

>>>市场震荡上涨,BAT(+17.82%)领涨,市值前100币种中超近六成币种上涨

昨日数字货币市场震荡上涨,当前市值2075.36亿美元。CBT20中平均涨幅1.70%,其中BTC涨幅0.04%,ETH涨幅0.88%,涨幅较大的有BCH(+8.74%)、XLM(+5.33%);现跌幅只有VET(-0.16%)。市值前100币种中近六成币种现涨幅,涨幅榜中平均涨幅5.92%,涨幅较大的有BAT(+17.82%)、BCH(+8.74%)、XLM(+5.33%);跌幅榜中平均跌幅4.68%,跌幅较大的有DGTX(-16.27%)、DROP(-7.93%)、NEXO(-4.33%)。


>>>中国台湾修订反洗钱法案以规范数字货币交易

据聚焦台湾报道,中国台湾“立法院”近日通过了反洗钱和恐怖主义融资预防法案,希望以此规范比特币等数字货币的交易,从而帮助打击网络金融犯罪。洗钱管制法和防止恐怖主义融资的修正案赋予中国台湾金融金融监督委员会(FSC)打击匿名数字货币交易的权力。根据新规所示,FSC现在可以要求数字货币平台的运营商实施实名制,让用户使用真实姓名及信息进行注册。

>>
>巴西联邦税务局计划每月收取与加密货币资产相关的运营报告
11月3日讯,据巴西联邦税务局10月30日发布的文件显示,负责巴西税收管理的RFB计划每月收取与加密货币资产有关的运营报告。文件中表示,巴西加密货币交易平台有义务每月向该机构发送所有加密伙伴相关运营的详细报道,并披露平台交易额度和客户身份。另外,在巴西居住的法人实体和个人进行加密货币交易,如果每月超过一万巴西雷尔亚(折合2700美元),就必须报告在外国加密货币交易所进行的所有相关交易。而对于未能按规提交报告的投资者,RFB设立了一些列的罚款惩罚——如果推迟纳税申报,公民将不得不支付1500雷亚尔(折合400美元)的罚款;如果提供的消息不充分或者虚假,RFB还会收取交易价值最高3%作为罚款。目前税务监察部门已开始向公众进行咨询,听取相关新规的建议,接受日期为10月31日至11月9日。

>>>比特币期货净空头头寸增至1077手合约
据CFTC发布的商品类非商业持仓报告数据显示,至10月30日当周,投机者所持CBOE比特币期货净空头头寸增至1077手合约。多头仓位1675手,较上周减少40手,空头仓位2752手较上周减少21手。

>>
>美SEC:过去一个财年成功完成十几项与IC0相关的执法活动
据Coindesk报道,美国证券交易委员会(SEC)本周五发布的年度报告表示,截止9月30日的财政年度内该部门成功完成了十几项与代币销售有关的执法行动;其中至少三项涉案金额高达6800万美元。但是这些罚款仅占SEC在2018财年收取到的39.45亿万罚款的一小部分。报告指出,鉴于IC0去年的爆发式增长,我们一直试图寻求能够传达广泛信息并在其自身业务之外产生市场影响的案件。而SEC的执法行动同时还影响了联邦证券法与网络问题相关的领域。

>>>V神否认自己将退出以太坊开发
11月1日,MIT科技评论发表了一篇题为“以太坊创始人说除非他退出否则他的发明不可能成功”的文章,称如果以太坊一直依靠V神来领导其开发,那么以太坊就不可能真正实现去中心化。该报道暗示V神将有可能退出以太坊开发团队,但V神在一份声明中强调,他并没有离开以太坊,也没有减少对区块链研究的关注。相反,他将鼓励在以太坊开源开发者社区中增加其他开发人员的工作。最近,区块链的开发者Peter Szilagyi分享了一份报告,这份报告显示,Ethereum Go是全球增长最快的开源项目,仅次于微软Azure、Wix、Spyder和Tensorflow。据了解,随着加强协议基础层和部署第二层网络的各种解决方案,在过去的一年中,以太坊生态系统中的开发人员大幅增加。

>>>ETF教父Reggie Browne:监管机构短期内不会批准比特币ETF
据CCN报道,ETF部门高级董事总经理Reggie Browne近日表示对比特币ETF不抱什么希望。他认为今年美国证监会(SEC)很可能不会批准任何一只比特币ETF上市,只有可能在加密货币行业拥有强大健全的监管框架之后,才可能得到批准。Browne说:“对SEC来说,要理解这个问题、积极地批准是很难的,因为还没有任何数据。那些市场还没有就位。”


>>>央行2018金融稳定报告首次出现完整的加密资产专题

据中国央行官网昨日发布的消息显示,近日中国人民银行发布《中国金融稳定报告(2018年)》,对2017年以来我国金融体系的稳健性状况进行全面评估。据小葱区块链报道,自2009年比特币上线以来,这是中国央行首度在年度中国金融稳定报告中列出完整的加密资产专题,也是首次提到ICO及加密货币等概念。报告中,央行将加密资产定义为“民间金融资产”,并肯定了其价值基础为密码学以及分布式记账等技术。此外报告中还重申了央行此前的观点,强调加密资产不具有部分货币属性、不具有与货币等同的法律地位。而加密资产相关领域的发展则侧面反映了区块链等新技术的兴起,但是无序发展导致整个市场投机色彩浓厚,给洗钱、恐怖融资等犯罪活动带来便利,欺诈发行、庄家控盘等问题频出,损害了投资者合法权益,需引起警惕。


>>>Deltec董事长证明Tether发布的合作信函是真实的
据哈希派昨日报道,Tether公司发布声明表示已找到新的银行合作伙伴——总部位于巴哈马的Deltec银行信托公司,而截止10月31日Tether在该行持有183亿美元的资产。而昨日Deltec的银行董事长Jean Chalopin也发送消息表明,此前Tether发布的信函是真实的。


>>> 精彩文章

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开启AI逆袭战,比特大陆欲打造“芯片帝国”

你是如何落入CoinMarketCap设下的圈套的?

以太坊成交量爆表,准备再次挑战比特币C位?

澳洲中本聪VS吴忌寒,BCH到底会不会分叉?

PoW浪费能源快成过去式?事实可能刚好相反

被解冻的八亿美元比特币:已有约14%被转移至交易所

哈希派 | 区块链课堂100问汇总

※更多精彩内容,请关注哈希派公众号或点击阅读原文获取

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Ethereum (ETH) Long-term Price Analysis

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Ethereum (ETH) Long-term Price Analysis

ethereum-eth-long-term-price-analysis-15

ETHUSD Long-term Trend – Ranging

Distribution territories: $350, $450, $550.

Accumulation territories: $150, $100, $50.

This week we saw Ethereum’s price range in movements similar to those we saw in last week’s trading sessions. The cryptocurrency has been maintaining its price around the $200 territory. On September 11 it declined to around $170, which remains the lowest point it saw this year.

Ethereum, ETHUSD, Cryptocompare chartEthereum Chart by TradingView

The 50-day SMA and the 14-day SMA are separated by a small space. The Stochastic Oscillators have crossed range 50 and now point north. This means the cryptocurrency is striving to regain value against the US dollar, which has been gaining strength.

Some believe ETH is set to rebound in the near future, but such a move may be impossible if the $170 territory is breached southward. The $225 territory should also be considered as if it’s broken northward a potential bullish trend may be around the corner.

The views and opinions expressed here do not reflect that of CryptoGlobe.com and do not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research.

Night of the Living HODLers: Halloween 2018’s Best Crypto Costumes

The cryptocurrency and blockchain communities got into the Halloween spirit this week – and as shown on social media, more than a few people went out in style.

Last year saw costume takes such as “Bitcoin Bubble Boy” and a real-life private key, and that kind of imaginative spirit was on full display for 2018.

This year’s Halloween also marked the 10-year anniversary of the release of the bitcoin white paper. In 2008, the pseudonymous creator of bitcoin, Satoshi Nakamoto, first circulated the paper among a list of influential cryptographers – thus setting the stage for the cryptocurrency’s formal launch the following January.

(For a range of perspectives on the white paper’s significance ten years on, check out CoinDesk’s Bitcoin White Paper series.) 

Given what could be called a dual holiday – in crypto circles, at least – his year’s Halloween costumes ran the proverbial gamut.

A Reddit poster named “benevolinsolence” used a black-colored bodysuit in an effort to create a walking, talking blockchain. The results of that effort can be seen in the photo below:

In a follow-up post, benevolinsolence revealed an update to the costume complete with glowsticks for the occasion.

Even industry startups like Blockstream got into the Halloween spirit with some in-office costumes.

Keeping in the spirit of the double-holiday, journalist Laura Shin dressed up as the bitcoin white paper itself.

This group of revelers offered a unique take on the term “bitcoin miners,” including both a hard hate and a live-price ticker for bitcoin. As a subsequent tweet revealed, the group won first place in a costume contest.

Some costume-wearers took on the topic of cryptocurrency forks (with an emphasis on the breakaway cryptocurrency bitcoin cash) this Halloween.

All in all, the crypto community put its creative spirit to the test this Halloween. And while the results weren’t exactly spooky, they did showcase its lighter side for a change.

Bitcoin, pumpkin and plastic spiders featured image via Shutterstock

The leader in blockchain news, CoinDesk is a media outlet that strives for the highest journalistic standards and abides by a strict set of editorial policies. CoinDesk is an independent operating subsidiary of Digital Currency Group, which invests in cryptocurrencies and blockchain startups.

Bitcoin Brought Us a New World We Could Have Only Imagined

Mike Belshe is the co-founder and CEO of BitGo.

This exclusive opinion piece is part of CoinDesk’s “Bitcoin at 10: The Satoshi White Paper” series.


In the 10 years since the bitcoin white paper was released, our understanding of the world around us has changed.

The introduction of a global, digital currency that can exist without a central authority opened our eyes to the possibilities of money – that it can be different from what we’ve known. As a community, we’re now wiser to the opportunities for a digital economy and discovered what it means to act as your own bank – and it’s incredibly liberating.

It’s also remarkable that this shift has occurred in just a decade.

I’ll admit that the first time I read the white paper I was skeptical. Some of the issues mentioned, like double spending, hadn’t registered as problems that needed solving before. The complicated labyrinth of miners, nodes, block rewards, and proof-of-work made the network seem implausible.

The second time I read it I was intrigued; could this complex network really process the world’s transactions?

By the third time, I knew bitcoin was worth pursuing, and here are the reasons why:

1. Bitcoin opened our eyes to the fact that we can change money

Most people never think, “what is money?” or “what makes good money?” We’re taught in school that monetary systems evolved from some sort of rudimentary barter, but why? How? Can a digital form of money be better?

Like many others, I first explored these questions after reading about bitcoin, and the answer is absolutely yes – we can create a better form of money.

2. The first significant digital cash

The white paper marked the introduction of autonomy and freedom of control over your own assets. With bitcoin, your money truly is your money.

3. Time-stamping digital data

Bitcoin’s solution to the double-spend problem went beyond its network; it solves a virtual world problem by guaranteeing unique ownership of any piece of data. Publishing verified transaction timestamps to a public ledger makes it so that money can’t be copied. The same technology has promise in many other applications.

4. Superior keys and locks

The use of cryptographic keys and locks gives us the best personal security measures for digital assets that we’ve ever had – they’re unbreakable.

A 256-bit random number (aka a “private key”) is superior to any physical key. In fact, these keys are so good that we no longer need stronger keys or locks – the problem is how to provide users with good enough interfaces so that they can easily and securely manage their keys?

Thoughtful UI/UX will be incredibly important in moving this forward, while multisignature keys, introduced by BitGo, help to address the problem.

5. PKI 2.0

Bitcoin demonstrated one of the first significant, widespread, public applications for public key infrastructure (PKI), leveraging it for verification of user identities and facilitation of transactions. PKI has been around since the 1970s, but prior to bitcoin, perhaps the only notable application was securing domain names with HTTPS (aka SSL or TLS).

6. No requirement for third parties

History shows us that third-party systems often fail.

Satoshi recognized this, developing a consensus protocol that rid the digital money system of problematic and costly third parties. So-called trusted intermediaries create counterparty risk for users; they’re relied upon for completion of transactions but provide the possibility for failure.

Credit cards are an example of this: they expose us to risk and then charge transaction fees to cover that risk. Bitcoin removed the need for these organizations.

7. Removing man-made inflation

Inflation is primarily caused by the overprinting of money. Bitcoin’s fixed supply eliminates central authority printing power and gives it to the metronome-like hands of the computer – your money can no longer be controlled or diluted.

Humans have historically broken every economy we’ve ever devised, but can giving a good ruleset to computers prevent this? I think so.

8. Money for a global economy

Cryptocurrency is a new type of commerce; we’ve never had a form of money that can be effortlessly moved between borders.

Bitcoin gives us a new way to connect across jurisdictions, opening up new economies. This is significant at BitGo where we serve clients in over 50 countries with many settling in Bitcoin.

9. Power to the individual

Bitcoin gives complete freedom of choice of money. Access and use are democratized so that anyone anywhere can participate.

In introducing a better money system, bitcoin highlighted what was wrong with our existing banking system. Global movement, verification of identity, and fungibility of money are now problems of the past.

10. Computers follow rules

The white paper laid out bitcoin’s long-term ability to save us from ourselves. Humans make mistakes and while that’s a constant, it’s not something we can prepare for. We’re also consistently poor at following rules, while computers excel at this. An open set of rules managed by computers makes for a stable economic system that isn’t vulnerable to human error.

~*~

With this transformative new money came a need for safe and secure storage. That’s how BitGo came to be; I was storing Bitcoin for my friends on an air-gapped laptop stored beneath my living room couch. But the more Bitcoin I held, the more I realized that a sophisticated solution would be required to keep it secure. This led to the development of BitGo’s multi-signature protocols, and later to advanced multi-user protocols, followed by advanced security policies and more.

If you had told me in 2012, when I first read the white paper, that I’d end up holding millions of dollars of bitcoin on a laptop that would lead to a security solution for billions of dollars worth of digital assets around the world, I don’t know if I could have imagined it.

In the 10 years since the release of the bitcoin white paper, our world has been changed indelibly – but this is just the beginning.

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中国央行发文:加密资产相关领域风险及防范(内附原文)

11月2日,中国人民银行发布《中国金融稳定报告(2018)》,列出加密资产相关专题,报告指出,变相ICO不断出现,清理整顿工作需继续保持高压态势,加大清理整治力度。

中国人民银行今日发布《中国金融稳定报告(2018)》,报告中专题十二列出加密资产相关领域风险及防范,原文如下:


在互联网与传统产业加速融合的背景下,以区块链a为代表的分布式记账技术迅猛发展。作为区块链技术的应用之一,比特币、以太币等加密资产b受到广泛关注,并催生了众多加密资产交易平台,以及首次代币发行(InitialCoinOffering,ICO)等新型融资模式。与此同时,由于缺乏监管,加密资产相关领域投机色彩浓厚,存在无序发展、易被违法犯罪活动利用、损害投资者合法权益等问题,不利于实体经济发展。


2017年,人民银行会同相关部门持续深入推进互联网金融专项整治工作,及时清理整顿代币发行融资和加密资产交易平台业务,引领了全球监管取向,初步遏制了加密资产相关领域的风险。下一步,应持续开展研究监测,着力推进业务整治,强化投资者保护与教育,推进国际合作。

加密资产相关领域发展概况


加密资产是一种民间金融资产,其价值主要基于密码学及分布式记账等技术。加密资产不由货币当局发行,不具有法偿性与强制性等货币属性,不具有与货币等同的法律地位。以比特币为例,其产生过程实际上是对维护区块链节点的一种奖励机制。随着区块链技术的发展,还出现了以太币、瑞波币、莱特币等类似技术应用。ICO通常指区块链项目研发团队通过发行自行创设的数字代币向投资者筹集比特币和以太币等加密资产的行为,因其形式类似于首次公开发行(IPO)而得名。


在加密资产发行领域,比特币于2009年上线,其数量由网络共识协议限定在2100万枚,获取途径主要依靠在区块链系统中提供算力支持(即“挖矿”)。此后,新型加密资产相继出现,但也主要采用此类模式。据有关统计c,2013年末全球加密资产有66种,2016年末为644种,至2017年末已达1335种。


ICO始于2013年,最初用于为区块链技术应用项目融资,随着部分ICO项目取得初步成果及各类加密资产价格大幅攀升,ICO项目猛增并吸引大量投机者入场。在国内市场,截至2017年7月18日,国内已完成的ICO项目达65个,其中仅5个项目为2017年前上线,相关项目累计参与人次达10.5万,累计融资规模约合人民币26.16亿元,占全球同期总规模的20%以上。


在加密资产交易领域,随着加密资产的交易需求和关注度上升,网络上出现了面向公众提供比特币、代币等的电子化撮合、集中连续竞价服务的交易平台,吸引了大量投资者,加密资产的种类、价格及交易平台数量均经历了爆发式增长。2013年末,全球加密资产市值约100亿美元,至2016年末为161亿美元,但到2017年末,其总市值暴涨至5729亿美元,呈高度泡沫化趋势,且波动巨大(见表2-2);截至2018年4月末,全球的加密资产交易平台已超过10000个。


加密资产相关领域存在的问题及挑战


加密资产相关领域的发展侧面反映了区块链等新技术的兴起,但无序发展导致整个市场投机色彩浓厚,给洗钱、恐怖融资等犯罪活动带来便利,欺诈发行、庄家控盘等问题频出,损害了投资者合法权益,需引起警惕。


行业无序发展,投机色彩浓厚。加密资产价格的大幅波动,加之前期监管的缺失,导致加密资产市场秩序混乱,并加重了区块链行业的投机色彩。加密资产相关的投机炒作盛行,价格暴涨暴跌,风险快速聚集,严重扰乱了经济金融和社会秩序。混乱的市场秩序带来逆向选择问题,扭曲了激励机制,使创业企业热衷于快速融资而无心创新,真正致力于创新的区块链初创企业在行业泡沫下难以得到资本市场的合理支持,阻碍行业长期健康发展。此外,行业内的技术应用较少专注于实体经济领域,没有起到服务实体经济的作用,激发了资金脱实向虚。


投资者合法权益难以保障。在发行方面,ICO融资主体鱼龙混杂,各类ICO项目投资者适当性管理和信息披露普遍缺失,部分项目没有实体项目支撑、白皮书造假,“山寨币”“空气币”层出不穷,甚至出现发起人卷款跑路等事件,融资运作涉嫌非法发行证券、非法集资、金融诈骗、传销等违法犯罪活动,投资者面临欺诈发行、标的资产不实、发行方经营失败等多重风险。在交易方面,加密资产交易场所面向公众采用电子撮合、集中竞价模式组织投机交易,价格波动远高于传统金融产品,且不存在涨跌幅和交易时间限制,市场风险高企。部分加密资产集中度高、流动性不足,存在炒作、庄家控盘等问题。


易被违法犯罪活动利用。部分机构和个人假借加密资产概念,以“区块链创新”为噱头,直接从事非法集资、非法证券、传销等违法犯罪活动,迷惑民众跟风参与。此外,加密资产及其交易的匿名性造成大量资金和加密资产的来源和投向不明,为洗钱、非法交易、恐怖融资及逃避资本管制和国际制裁提供了便利,损害了相关执法行动的有效性,给社会带来不利影响。2017年5月,勒索病毒“WannaCry”造成至少150多个国家的20多万台设备受到影响,该病毒要求用户使用比特币支付赎金,以规避追查。

加密资产相关领域的监管动向


(一)国内监管动向


持续警示比特币风险。2013年12月,人民银行等五部委发布《关于防范比特币风险的通知》,明确提出各金融机构和支付机构不得开展与比特币相关的业务等一系列要求。相关部门利用多种渠道,多次警示比特币风险,引导社会正确认识比特币与货币的区别。


对加密资产交易平台开展检查。2017年1月,人民银行有关部门牵头对比特币、莱特币交易平台开展了现场检查,重点检查是否存在超范围经营、涉嫌市场操纵、违反反洗钱制度、资金安全隐患等问题。同时,敦促相关单位对照法律法规开展自查和清理整顿。


清理整顿代币发行融资及交易平台。2017年9月,人民银行等七部委发布《关于防范代币发行融资风险的公告》,明确代币发行融资本质上是一种未经批准非法公开融资的行为,涉嫌非法发售代币票券、非法发行证券以及非法集资、金融诈骗、传销等违法犯罪活动,叫停代币发行融资,并要求交易平台限期关停。经清理整顿,国内主要ICO平台均已公告停止了新增代币发行融资活动,部分平台发布了项目退资公告,多个项目已经完成了退资工作,交易平台也已停止加密资产交易活动并基本清退完毕。


(二)国际监管动向


总体而言,各主要经济体对加密资产相关领域的监管态度存在差异且处于动态变化之中,但对潜在风险均予以高度关注和持续揭示,随着加密资产规模、影响和风险的扩大,监管政策相应呈收紧趋势。


韩国、印度、印度尼西亚等禁止了部分加密资产业务。韩国金融服务委员会于2017年9月公告,代币融资活动违反资本市场法律,将对参与主体予以严厉处罚,还将对加密资产交易进行严密管制和监控。随后,还禁止了金融中介就加密资产建立头寸,禁止使用匿名银行账户进行加密资产交易。印度央行于2017年9月公告,比特币及其他加密资产不是合法的支付工具。印度尼西亚央行于2018年1月公告,加密资产不是合法的支付手段。


日本、美国、新加坡、中国香港等探索构建加密资产监管框架。日本对加密资产政策较为开放。2017年3月,日本金融厅修订《支付服务法案》,承认比特币为合法的支付手段,并要求虚拟货币交易所在日本金融厅注册登记。截至2018年4月末,已有16家交易所获得许可。美国试图将比特币、ICO纳入传统监管体系。


一是探索执行牌照管理,2017年7月,美国全国统一州法律委员会通过《虚拟货币统一监管条例》,规定虚拟货币服务机构在满足必须条件后需向有关政府机构登记并获取营业执照。


二是证券交易委员会和商品期货交易委员会通过采取民事强制执行措施,打击关于虚拟货币的欺诈、市场操纵及混乱交易。


三是积极推进立法,证券交易委员会认为ICO本质上属于证券活动,应在《证券法》框架下建立监管规则。


四是加强公众沟通,多次向投资者提示风险。新加坡金管局于2017年8月公告,如果代币属于《证券与期货法》要求监管的产品,则将对代币的供应或发行进行监管。中国香港证监会于2017年9月表示,部分ICO活动属于证券发行行为,可纳入证券法律监管框架。2018年3月,香港证监会叫停一起ICO。


俄罗斯、瑞士、马来西亚等对加密资产相关业务予以密切关注和风险警示。以上国家监管当局均公告指出,由于加密资产的匿名性,投资者可能陷入非法活动,监管部门将密切关注市场发展,积极研究监管方法。

政策建议


当前,加密资产相关领域的清理整治工作取得积极进展,有效防范化解了相关风险,但各类非法金融活动形态多变、转移迅速,仍存在违规业务“出海”运营,利用代投、代充手段进行诈骗等问题。



变相ICO不断出现,例如不直接发币募资,而是先免费“赠币”,发行人自留一部分币,后续设法炒高币价牟利等新变种。清理整顿工作需持续着力,相关风险的防范与化解需未雨绸缪,早识别、早预警、早发现、早处置。


首先,继续保持高压态势,加大清理整治力度,继续采取多种手段,对新出现的违法违规问题依法严厉打击,维护市场秩序,引导资金回归实体经济;


其次,加强国内监管协调,发挥部门合力,按照实质重于形式的原则落实功能监管要求;


再次,持续做好投资者保护与宣传教育,采取多种形式明确揭示风险,强调风险自担;最后,积极推进国际合作与监管协调,形成监管合力,共同应对监管挑战。

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Winklevoss Twins Sue Crypto Pioneer Charlie Shrem Over 5,000 BTC

/latest/2018/11/charlie-shrem-facing-lawsuit-from-the-winklevoss-twins-over-purported-stolen-bitcoin/

charlie-shrem-facing-lawsuit-from-the-winklevoss-twins-over-purported-stolen-bitcoin

Cryptocurrency pioneer Charlie Shrem is facing a lawsuit at the hands of Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss, the twins that founded cryptocurrency exchange Gemini and the first known “bitcoin billionires.”

According to the New York Times, the duo believes Shrem has gone on a spending spree with bitcoin he was supposed to give them. This, as in 2012 the Winklevoss twins reportedly gave Shrem several hundred thousand dollars to buy BTC.

At the time bitcoin was trading at little over $10, according to CryptoCompare data. Per the lawsuit. Shrem allegedly did not give back what amounts to 5,000 bitcoins, now worth about $37.1 million.

Stolen Bitcoin?

The missing cryptocurrency seemed to have be forgotten after the Winklevoss twins cut off contact with Shrem once he went to prison after pleading guilty in an operation he ran, that some used to buy BTC for drugs.

Now the brothers have filed a lawsuit against Shrem because they allege he has bought a variety of luxury items with money that should be in their pockets. According to the recently unsealed lawsuit, Shrem has bought six properties, two Maseratis, two powerboats, and some other holdings over the past year.

The accusation is Shrem has been bankrolling his purchases with the “appreciated value of the 5,000 bitcoins he stole” from the Winklevoss twins.

The New York Times reported how Shrem’s lawyer, Brian Klein, asserted the allegations are baseless. He said Shrem would be ready to clear his name and defend himself.

Court documents reveal a judge has agreed to freeze some of Shrem’s assets. There is also speculation the case could spiral due to allegations Shrem has failed to pay $950,000 in restitutions to the government related to his guilty plea.

A Troubled Past

Shrem has not been shy about discussing his past and has mentioned desire to craft a new path. He said in a podcast he found work as a dishwasher after prison and stayed away from checking his email.

Shrem noted how much of his earlier wealth was spent on legal fees, and his $8 dollar an hour job washing dishes was “one of the best experiences.”

However, he has attracted headlines after being part of the leadership of two different endeavors that had to give money back to investors. Some think the court battle with the Winklevoss brothers could saddle his latest venture, CryptoIQ, with a lot of issues.

Korean Crypto Exchange Bithumb to Launch Security Token Platform in the U.S.

South Korean cryptocurrency exchange Bithumb is reportedly exploring the possibility of a security token exchange in the U.S., according to people familiar with the matter. Local news agency Yonhap News was able to confirm on November 2, 2018, that Bithumb has agreed to partner with American fintech company seriesOne.

Security Tokens: The New Frontier

According to a blog post published by seriesOne on November 1, 2018, the two companies will launch “a [regulatory] compliant marketplace to trade Security Tokens, subject to receipt of SEC, FINRA and other applicable approvals.” Furthermore, Bithumb will aid seriesOne’s expansion into South Korea by investing in the regional arm and helping with development and marketing.

Based in Miami, seriesOne is a crowdfunding platform for crypto and blockchain projects. However, unlike most other ICO listing websites, it boasts compliance with all crowdfunding laws established in the United States. According to seriesOne, this includes Regulation D 506(c), Regulation CF and Regulation A+ set forth by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The company’s new South Korean arm will be headed by Kaine Kim, who previously served as a Deputy Director at South Korea’s Financial Services Commission (FSC).

Anonymous industry sources told Yonhap News that the security token platform is scheduled to go live sometime in the first half of 2019. While Bithumb will provide the exchange-related technology and go on to operate the platform, seriesOne will be able to offer experience with local laws and regulations.

The CEO of Bithumb, Back Young Heo, said:

“We are very excited about joining with seriesOne. We are not only impressed by the mix of talent between investment banking, compliance, and technology of the seriesOne team but also with their deep understanding of US securities regulations and how they apply to token offerings.”

Turbulent Times at Bithumb?

After China imposed an unceremonious blanket ban on digital currencies in September 2017, South Korea has emerged as a critical cryptocurrency market in the South East Asia region. With support for 57 different assets, Bithumb is one of the largest exchanges in both, South Korea and the Asian continent, regarding trading volume.

Bithumb’s overwhelming popularity has also helped it attract private funding from a variety of investors, including most recently, BK Global Consortium. The Singaporean blockchain investment firm managed to buy just over 38 percent ownership from the exchange’s biggest shareholder, BTC Holdings Company, in October 2018. The acquisition was reportedly completed for around 400 billion Korean Won, or $354 million.

However, the past year has not exactly been smooth sailing for the cryptocurrency exchange. In June 2018, Bithumb announced that it was a victim of a significant security breach, which led to the theft of digital tokens worth $31.5 million. One week later, the exchange published a statement claiming that it had managed to recover $14 million of the siphoned cryptocurrency. “The main reason for the reduction is the ongoing participation, support and cooperation of cryptocurrency exchanges and cryptocurrencies foundations across the world,” read the blog post.

年赚13亿美元的Coinbase为何还要融资?Coinbase副总裁:送上门的你不要?

通过最新一轮融资,Coinbase已经由加密货币交易所变身为硅谷独角兽公司。Coinbase正在积累“战争资金”,以备“不时之需”。

至少,Coinbase负责企业和业务开发的副总裁Emilie Choi是这样描述这次E轮融资的。Coinbase本周宣布获得由Tiger Global Management领投,Polychain等参投的3亿美元融资,其中Polychain是由Coinbase前雇员Olaf Carlson-Wee领导的公司。

Choi本周三表示,“这是摆在面前的机会,我们其实并不需要融资。”

在谈到为什么一家据说每年产生13亿美元利润的公司还要从风险投资者那里获取资金时,她补充说:

“我们想要钱以备不时之需,这样能够抓住任何我们认为非常重要的机会。”

换句话说,Choi看到的主要机会来自于Coinbase平台增加对新资产的支持,最终会有“数千”种潜在的加密货币登上Coinbase。

除了Coinbase最近开始支持的由Circle公司发行的稳定币USDC之外,Coinbase还正在另一种与法定货币挂钩的数字资产。

“随着平台增加更多数字资产,稳定币属于自然的延伸范围。随着我们进入加密货币的实用阶段,我们意识到阻止用户真正使用加密货币的一个重要因素是它的波动性。因此,稳定币有助于为加密货币的使用和稳定铺平道路。

她补充称,随着Coinbase增加对更多资产的支持,稳定币或隐私币等多种类别自然会出现在Coinbase平台。该公司已经在考虑添加以隐私为中心的资产zcash。

当被问及是否有一天Coinbase会上线ICO代币来时,Choi回答说,该公司不想“关闭”未来任何机会的大门。

她说:

“目前所有的优先事项都集中在增加支持资产、扩大国际路线等方面。”

Autonomous Partners的创始人兼董事总经理、加密货币老兵阿里安娜•辛普森(Arianna Simpson)表示,Coinbase此次融资不同寻常,但并不令人意外。

Simpson向CoinDesk表示:

“通常情况下,如果某一家公司进行如此大规模融资,原因可能是因为它们没有盈利。不过(Coinbase)看到了在有利条件下筹集资金的机会,于是他们抓住了这个机会。”

不止3亿美元

Coinbase还没有公布这次E轮融资的确切规模;第二批投资者仍在等待一些文书工作的完成。

Choi表示,“这次本次融资初选名单的第一部分,我们还保留了一些进行第二批投资的投资者名额。不过,这(3亿美元)将是这轮融资的主要部分。”

总部位于柏林的基金1kx的联合创始人、风险投资家Lasse Clausen向CoinDesk表示,此次募资尤其令人印象深刻,因为据报道,过去两个季度,Coinbase的活跃用户大幅减少。总体而言,研究公司Diar发现,自去年以来,Coinbase的美元交易量下降了80%。

Clausen说,

“自2017年12月以来,Coinbase的收入和活跃用户一直在下降,因此,投资者仍在进行如此大规模的投资,这一事实表明了他们对加密货币的中长期看好程度。”

这也是Choi所说的为什么Coinbase现在融资以及为“长期”准备。她说,这些收益还将有助于为国际扩张提供资金。

Choi表示,

“当然,英国一直是我们关注的焦点。我们可能会在更广泛的欧盟有更多的扩张和扩展。我们非常看好日本,认为它是我们真正想进入的第一个亚洲市场。”

实际上,Coinbase正在伦敦和东京的新办事处招聘几个职位。因此,Choi表示,这次E轮融资将帮助公司提供有竞争力的就业机会。此外,这轮融资使得该公司的估值达到了创纪录的80亿美元。

在谈到Coinbase最终目标是IPO时,Choi补充说:

“无论何时,只要我们准备好成为一家上市公司,我们都会这么做。”

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