This Unexpected Factor Suggests Bitcoin May Crash From $9,000s, Not Rally

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This Unexpected Factor Suggests Bitcoin May Crash From $9,000s, Not Rally


Bitcoin is in no man’s land. Just look at the chart below from analyst Josh Rager, which shows that BTC hasn’t even moved out of the $8,500-10,000 range for eight weeks:

“BTC’s range is clear. Current support that has been holding the past three weeks is the mid-range Break down here and price likely to see $8900 followed by $8500 range bottom.”

Bitcoin

Chart of BTC’s price action over recent months by Josh Rager (@Josh_rager on Twitter). Chart from Tradingview.com

The longer this consolidation has gone on, the more bullish analysts have become.

Yet, one trader recently explained an unexpected factor that indicates Bitcoin may actually fall from the $9,000s.

Bitcoin’s Consolidation Doesn’t Scream a Market Top

Because Bitcoin has held the $9,000s for so long, many analysts have turned bullish. Eric Thies noted that Bitcoin’s price action over the past two months looks nothing like any of the market tops seen over the past two years:

“BTC stucturally looking less like a local top and more like a launchpad as of now. Naturally speaking, things may need to go down before they really go up but this time looks promisingly different.”

Bitcoin

Bitcoin “top” analysis by Eric Thies (@KingThies on Twitter). Chart from TradingView.com

The idea goes that since Bitcoin has yet to break down from the current range, this is more likely a pitstop in a bull market rather than a bearish reversal.

Not everyone is convinced this is the case, though.

There’s a Chance BTC “Breaks Down” From Here: Analyst

There may be strong arguments that this range is bullish, yet there remain signals and sentiment indicating Bitcoin will drop:

The aforementioned unexpected factor was explained by a trader as follows:

“It is possible that since this Bitcoin structure was very spot driven, that we can all be right at the same time in thinking this breaks down. The spot drive was from the same retail Robinhood types that were indiscriminately buying risk assets across the board.”

That’s to say, Bitcoin is currently being propped up by “retail” buyers also bidding the S&P 500 higher. These investors are seemingly disregarding macroeconomic and market factors imply an underlying bear trend in markets.

Once they run out of money or they begin to acknowledge risks, the market will begin to roll over, his comment seemingly suggested.

Another trader has echoed the expectations of a move to the downside.

Referencing the chart below, an analyst claimed that sellers likely remain in control of the Bitcoin market and could take the cryptocurrency under $7,000:

“A couple more clues developing that lend themselves to HTF distribution. 1. Rising Demand on the verge of failing. 2. Side by side, ascent vs descent with selling the dominant pressure from volume.”

Bitcoin

Bitcoin distribution analysis shared by trader “Cold Blooded Shiller” (@Coldbloodshill on Twitter). Chart from TradingView.com

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Price tags: xbtusd, btcusd, btcusdt
Charts from TradingView.com
This Unexpected Factor Suggests Bitcoin May Crash From $9,000s, Not Rally

Crypto Tidbits: Bitcoin Stalls at $9k, Cardano Shelley, Elon Musk & Ethereum

Another week, another round of Crypto Tidbits.

It’s been another boring week for the Bitcoin market. For all of the past seven days, the leading cryptocurrency has traded within 3% of $9,100, trading both above and below that level.

Volatility indicators have continued to drop as a result of the consolidation, reaching crucial levels. Analysts expect this consolidation to break within the next few days and weeks as other markets, namely the S&P 500, establishes a trend as well.

crypto

Chart of Bitcoin's price over the past 10 days from TradingView.com

Mike McGlone, a senior commodity analyst at Bloomberg, is bullish despite the lack of movement in crypto markets.

McGlone released Bloomberg’s July Crypto Outlook on the 2nd, in which he conveyed a bullish tone.

Although he didn’t give an exact price prediction, he suggested that Bitcoin may gravitate towards $12,000-12,750 in the coming weeks and months:

“The number of active Bitcoin addresses used, a key signal of the 2018 price decline and 2019 recovery, suggests a value closer to $12,000, based on historical patterns. Reflecting greater adoption, the 30-day average of unique addresses from Coinmetrics has breached last year’s peak… Unless advancing addresses abruptly reverse, history suggests Bitcoin may gravitate toward that level,” McGlone wrote in reference to the crucial $12,734 level.

Bitcoin aside, a number of altcoins saw really strong performances over the past week. Cardano, Vechain, Tron, Stellar Lumens, Synthetix, Kyber Network, and Chainlink are amongst the cryptocurrencies that have done well, benefiting from fundamental trends.

For instance, Synthetix, Kyber Network, and Chainlink have all benefited from growth in the decentralized finance (DeFi) sector. Their respective products are being used more and more as this segment of the cryptocurrency market has seen increased adoption.


Bitcoin & Crypto Tidbits

  • Cardano Launches “Shelley” Upgrade at Long Last: At long last, the Cardano blockchain is finally starting to make the formal transition to its “Shelley” era. The upgrade will make ADA and its underlying blockchain much more decentralized and usable than its previous iteration. This week, the development teams behind Shelley revealed code for the upgrade but asserted that a full transition won’t take place until the end of July.
  • Tesla CEO Elon Musk Comments on Ethereum: On July 2nd, Tesla’s CEO Elon Musk talked about cryptocurrency. This time, he discussed his involvement (or lack thereof) with Ethereum: “I’m not building anything on ETH. Not for or against it, just don’t use it or own any.”
  • Ethereum 2.0 Gains the Support of Bison Trails: Bison Trails, a Libra Association partner, announced last week that it will be supporting the Ethereum 2.0 upgrade. The announcement from the company indicates that the firm will be offering a “suite of enterprise projects” related to this upgrade. These products will “make it easy to interact with the Beacon Chain, stake ETH, and automatically manage validators, validator clients, and beacon nodes.”
  • Prominent Investor Bashes 99% of Crypto Projects: Jason Calacanis is a prominent entrepreneur, author, and angel investor. He is especially known for his angel investments in Robinhood, Uber, and Trello. While he recently revealed he is finally starting to become bullish on Bitcoin, he is bearish on most crypto projects:

“Historically, 99% of crypto projects are garbage run by unqualified idiots, delusional but below average founders or grifters… the 1% that are not, could change the world. I’m waiting for that 1% to deliver their product so I can talk to their customers.”

  • Nexo Co-Founder Antoni Trenchev Thinks Bitcoin Will Hit $50,000: Nexo co-founder Antoni Trenchev said months ago that Bitcoin is on track to hit $50,000 in 2020. Even after March’s correction and the recent price action, he remains optimistic. Speaking at the Blockdown digital conference, Trenchev said that he still thinks BTC will hit $50,000 this year. Referencing BTC’s 21 million coin supply cap, the crypto executive said:

“You can’t have the President of the United States tweeting out that the money supply, the total number of Bitcoin should be expanded from 21 million. You just can have that. Bitcoin is this perfect structure, which has all the right principles. And those once formulated, stipulated, put into code, they remain unchanged of any human intervention. So yes, I’m sticking to my prediction of 50K until the end of the year.”

  • Tether’s Market Cap Hits $10 Billion: According to Messari analyst Ryan Watkins, the market capitalization of Tether’s USDT passed 10 billion on June 30th. This makes it the third cryptocurrency in the 10-figure range. With one USDT worth $1, the stablecoin’s market capitalization is now in excess of $10  billion.
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Crypto Tidbits: Bitcoin Stalls at $9k, Cardano Shelley, Elon Musk & Ethereum

The IRS Investigation Division Is Requesting Information About Privacy-Centric Cryptocurrencies

The IRS Investigation Division Is Requesting Information About Privacy-Centric Cryptocurrencies

The United States tax agency has published a request for information pertaining to privacy-centric cryptocurrencies and technologies that obfuscate crypto transactions. The IRS-CI Cyber Crimes Unit request is also asking for information in relation to “layer two offchain protocol networks, sidechains, and the Schnorr Signature algorithm.

A recently published IRS-CI Cyber Crimes Unit request that’s available for public viewing is requesting information from “industry partners” in regards to crypto assets that leverage privacy techniques and other types of protocols that hide transaction data. The Request for Information (RFI) was published on June 30, 2020, and the RFI is dubbed “Pilot IRS Cryptocurrency Tracing.”

The IRS-CI request states:

This RFI is associated with a pilot IRS Criminal Investigation Division (CI) program. CI Cyber Crimes is requesting information about systems that will allow developers and testers to conduct investigative research of distributed ledger transactions involving privacy cryptocurrency coins.

The IRS Investigation Division Is Requesting Information About Privacy-Centric Cryptocurrencies

The privacy-centric crypto tokens mentioned in the IRS-CI request include “monero (XMR), zcash (ZEC), dash (DASH), grin (GRIN), komodo (KMD), verge (XVG), and horizon (ZEN). Alongside this, the IRS wants data concerning offchain networks and sidechains like “Lightning Network (LN), Raiden Network, Celer Network, Plasma, Omisego,” and coins that have integrated the Schnorr Signature algorithm like bitcoin cash (BCH).

The United States tax agency says the entity currently has little knowledge of these protocols and is looking to build its expertise. The IRS would also like to leverage applications that allow them to investigate these privacy tools and coins.

“Acquiring applications to allow an investigation to more easily trace privacy coins and other protocols that provide anonymity to illicit actors would allow investigations to be more effective, as well as facilitate a higher level of deterrence by making it harder to conceal criminal activity. It also provides an investigative efficiency that is currently limited,” the IRS request notes.

Similarly, there are only a “few investigative resources” that allow investigators to intercept or trace transactions involving “Layer 2 network protocol transactions [and] sidechain ledgers.” Including “distributed ledgers that are adopting signature algorithms that provide privacy to illicit actors.”

The IRS notes in the request that the use of privacy coins and offchain/sidchain networks are “becoming more popular for general use.” But also the tax agency is “seeing an increase in use by illicit actors.”

What do you think about the recently published IRS-CI Cyber Crimes Unit request? Let us know in the comments section below.

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This Alarming Pattern Suggests Bitcoin Could Soon Crater Lower

Bitcoin

This Alarming Pattern Suggests Bitcoin Could Soon Crater Lower


  • As Bitcoin continues its range-bound trading phase, traders are placing their bets on which direction it will trend next
  • This consolidation has caused the cryptocurrency’s volatility to plunge to lows not seen in over a year
  • It is unlikely that this trend will last for too much longer, as extended bouts of sideways trading are typically followed by massive movements
  • One technical pattern that is strikingly similar to that seen in 2019 is now suggesting that Bitcoin could be positioned to see notable downside in the coming weeks
  • This comes as one analyst notes that it is “do or die” time for Bitcoin

Bitcoin and the aggregated cryptocurrency market have struggled to garner any clear momentum in recent times.

This is primarily due to the benchmark cryptocurrency’s multi-month bout of sideways trading that it has been caught within since May.

As for where the cryptocurrency could trend next, it does appear that the signs are all pointing in favor of sellers.

In addition to being unable to surmount a crucial level that it was rejected yesterday, the crypto has now dipped below $9,000 on multiple occasions without any ardent response from buyers.

One technical pattern similar to that seen in June of 2019 also spells trouble for what could come next.

Bitcoin Fails to Bounce After Posting Rejection at a “Bounce or Die” Level 

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading up marginally at its current price of $9,100. The crypto has been trading at this level for the past few days.

Earlier this week, buyers attempted to catalyze some momentum that led it to $9,300 before it faced a harsh rejection.

As Bitcoinist reported yesterday, the rejection at $9,300 coincided with a rejection at the crypto’s 200-day EMA. As cited in the report, one analyst noted that it is now a “bounce or die” moment for BTC.

“4h was rejected from resistance of cloud (200 ema). Now resting on 21ema – bounce or die.”

Bitcoin

Image courtesy of Teddy. Chart via TradingView.

It has maintained above its 21-day EMA in the time since but has yet to post any bullish reaction to this support.

This Pattern from 2019 Spells Trouble for BTC

In the summer of 2019, when Bitcoin posted its intense rally to highs of nearly $14,000, it formed a distribution pattern that ultimately resulted in its price entering a yearlong downtrend.

This decline eventually led it to lows of $3,800 this past March.

One analyst is now noting that there is a striking correlation between the distribution pattern seen last year and that being formed presently.

“90 day distribution at $10k – $13k vs 60 day current range for BTC,” he said while pointing to the below chart.

Image courtesy of Cold Blooded Shiller. Chart via TradingView.

If this pattern plays out as it did last summer, the crypto could soon see some significant losses.

Featured image from Shutterstock.
Charts from TradingView.

A Signal Last Seen Before Bitcoin Plunged to $3,700 Is About to Return

To many, determining which direction Bitcoin trends from here is a coin toss. One trader shared the image below with the caption: “You guys still trading this garbage? I’m not doing anything until one of these lines gets hit.”

That’s to say, the analyst isn’t taking a trading position in Bitcoin because he has no idea where it will go first.

Image

BTC range chart shared by chartist/technician Byzantine General (@Byzgeneral on Twitter). Chart from TradingView.com

Unfortunately for bulls, the evidence is starting to melt that a correction is more likely than a rally.

Bitcoin Could Be Subject to a Steep Correction, Indicator Shows

Bitcoin’s price action has effectively been flat over the past eight weeks. But a crucial indicator suggests that a bearish undercurrent has formed as BTC has consolidated around $9,000.

A trader shared the below chart on July 3rd, showing that BTC is forming a bearish trend as per the Tom Demark Sequential. The TD Sequential is a time-based indicator that signals trends and inflection points in an asset’s rallies or corrections.

“With a couple more days left in the weekly candle, Bitcoin is on a Red 2 below a Red 1 which would signal a short trade on a weekly timeframe, all in the context after a perfected Green TD9 the first week of June.”

They added that Bitcoin last looked like this per the TD Sequential in early March, prior to the crash to $3,700.

Image

Bitcoin price chart shared by crypto trader "Big Chonis" (@Bigchonis on twitter). Chart from TradingView.com

The bearish signal poised to be registered by the TD Sequential isn’t the only signal tying Bitcoin’s recent price action to the February top.

Not the Only Bearish Sign

Below is a chart from an Ichimoku Cloud specialist showing that Bitcoin is looking structurally similar to how it looked prior to the March crash.

As the trader annotated on the chart below, four Ichimoku Cloud signals that were present then are present now.

Image

Bitcoin Ichimoku Cloud analysis by trader "Ichimoku Scholar" (@Ichimokuscholar on Twitter). Chart from TradingView.com

Considering the confluence, it is no wonder that institutional traders involved with Bitcoin are being careful.

As reported by NewsBTC previously, CME futures data shows that institutions have been building a net short position in Bitcoin. One trader shared the image below at the end of June, showing that “institutional traders” on the CME are cumulatively shorting 2,038 contracts.

The last time institutional traders were as bearish as they are now was in February, prior to the crash to $3,700.

Bitcoin

BTC price chart with CME's Commitment of Traders report data. Chart from TradingView.com; made by Byzantine General (@Byzgeneral on Twitter).
Featured Image from Shutterstock
Price tags: xbtusd, btcusd, btcusdt
Charts from TradingView.com
A Signal Last Seen Before Bitcoin Plunged to $3,700 Is About to Return

Huobi Global to Run Chainlink (LINK) Node After Partnership

Huobi Global to Run Chainlink (LINK) Node After Partnership

The pricing data of Singapore-based Huobi Global will be availed to smart contracts through Chainlink’s decentralized oracles, a blog post published on July 3, 2020, has revealed. The partnership will also see Huobi wallets run live Chainlink nodes further fortifying the oracle’s network. 

Huobi Global to Avail On-Demand Crypto Pairs

Specifically, BTC/ETH, BTC/USDT, ETH/USDT, and LINK/ETH pricing data will be accessible to smart contracts. Since Chainlink is blockchain agnostic and its oracle services already in use by several networks including ATOM, the main beneficiary will be DeFi dApps. 

Blockchain-based financial apps will access vetted, tamper-proof, real-world data resulting in more diversified, secure, reliable, and trustless DeFi innovations.

Commenting, Sergey Nazarov—the co-founder of Chainlink, said:

We’re excited to help Huobi make it’s exchange data available to the DeFi market, both by onboarding them as a Chainlink node operator and using Chainlink external adapters to make the Huobi exchange API accessible to smart contracts.

Chainlink Bags High-Level Partners

Given the number of partnerships and recognition in recent times, Chainlink is undoubtedly the market leader in the provision of oracle services. 

It continues to link smart contracts with off-chain data and has partnered with large enterprises like Google, SWIFT, and Oracle. 

In June, it was recognized by the World Economic Forum (WEF) as a technology pioneer and a blockchain leader putting them in the same league as Google in their heydays.

Furthermore, China’s Blockchain Services Network (BSN) will, through an intermediary (the IRITA interchain service hub), use Chainlink’s oracles, therefore, enabling dApp developers to build on the platform. Generally, users of the BSN will have greater reliability, security, and interconnectivity. FLETA, a blockchain supported by the South Korean government, has also integrated Chainlink to authenticate off-chain patients’ data.

Chainlink Oracle Reputation (COR) Adds Ropsten Test Network Support

Chainlink’s success in attracting high profile partners has been reflected in their quest to continuously improve their services. The Chainlink Oracle Reputation (COR) on July 1, 2020, said it was adding Ropsten test network support. 

Subsequently, COR will “offer the entire COR visualization tooling” enabling node operators to monitor their performances before diving head into the Ethereum mainnet. However, depending on the community feedback, they may extend their support to “beyond the Ropsten test network.”

In June, BTCManager reported that CryptoMiso had identified Chainlink as one of the most actively built platforms ranked by GitHub activity.

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Bad Ravencoin Code Allows Attackers to Generate Coins Without Mining

Unidentified attackers exploited a Ravencoin vulnerability to mint extra RVN “beyond the coinbase of 5000 RVN per block,” Ravencoin lead developer Tron Black wrote in a Medium post on Thursday.

According to Black, members of Ravencoin’s CryptoScope team, who developed Solus Explorer, reached out to the Ravencoin developer team recently with their findings. 

The vulnerability was caused by a community code submission. “Law enforcement has been notified and is working with us,” Black said. 

The extra coins increase the total supply of 21 billion RVN by 1.5% or the equivalent of 44 days worth of mining.

Ravencoin is an open-source fork of bitcoin that launched in 2018. It’s designed to facilitate the transfer of assets from one party to another, and users can create assets on the protocol that adhere to rules independent of those on the platform. The project’s website specifically calls out the Game of Thrones’ reference to Ravens as messengers of truth, which parallels the concept of blockchains as a technology for ultimate truth. 

Black suggested the Ravencoin community either absorb the economic cost of extra RVN or shift the halving of the coins 44 days sooner. Black did not return a request for comment by press time.

“The vulnerability does not allow the stealing of RVN or assets that you own and control, but the minting did create RVN that should not exist,” Black said. “Because those RVN were transferred to an exchange and traded, they are mixed with other RVN and therefore any programmatic attempt at burning them, with miner and community backing, would cause irreparable harm to innocent victims. As it stands, the burden has been shared across all RVN holders in proportion to their RVN holdings in the form of inflation.”

Black urged users to keep trading to a minimum until a fix is issued. He also said that Ravencoin would not publish the details of the vulnerability until the fix could be implemented. As of yet, there is no timeline for when the chain will be updated.

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Ransomware Targets Outdated Microsoft Excel Macros to Deploy Attacks

What can I do to prevent this in the future?

If you are on a personal connection, like at home, you can run an anti-virus scan on your device to make sure it is not infected with malware.

If you are at an office or shared network, you can ask the network administrator to run a scan across the network looking for misconfigured or infected devices.

Here’s Why Ethereum’s Consolidation Could Result in an Explosive Move to $480

Ethereum has been consolidating over the past few days within the $220 region.

Although on the surface its price structure seems similar to that of Bitcoin and its peers, it is important to note that it is currently stuck beneath its long-held trading range between $230 and $250.

Its sustained bout of trading below this range is a grim sign, but analysts are noting that the crypto has remained above a couple of crucial technical levels.

The ability to remain above these levels has led one analyst to set his sights on a movement to $480 in the months ahead.

He isn’t alone in this target either, as another respected trader offered a similar outlook, noting that whether or not this comes to fruition will depend on whether it can remain above $210.

Ethereum Consolidates Beneath Long-Held Trading Range

At the time of writing, Ethereum is trading up marginally at its current price of $227. The crypto has been trading here for the past several days, unable to garner any clear momentum.

Earlier this week, buyers did attempt to break this consolidation phase when they sent ETH to highs of just over $230, but the selling pressure here proved to be significant.

The reason why $230 is a crucial level is due to it being the lower boundary of a trading range that has been formed over the past two months.

Although Bitcoin has been able to remain firmly within its trading range between $9,000 and $10,000 in recent weeks, Ethereum’s buyers have seen waning support as of late.

In spite of this, one popular pseudonymous trader does believe that Ethereum remains technically strong as long as it trades above $210.

He notes that a continued defense of this level could help spark an uptrend that ultimately leads it to $350 this year and $500 next year.

“ETH aiming for $350 this year in my opinion… As long as we hold $210 this is still valid. Thinking we flip $350 and see $500 taken out next year,” he said.

Ethereum

Image Courtesy of Cactus. Chart via TradingView.

ETH Holds Above 2 Crucial Technical Levels; Opening the Gates for Massive Upside 

Another analyst offered a similar price target for Ethereum, noting it could soon rally towards $480.

He justified this by explaining that ETH is currently consolidating above its 100-day and 200-day moving averages – which is a historically bullish occurrence.

“Ethereum: Acting above the 100-Day and 200-Day MA’s, while consolidating in a healthy way. Reminds me a lot of April 2019. Needs to hold; $195-200. Next targets; $290-340 and $425-480,” he explained.

Image Courtesy of Crypto Michael. Chart via TradingView.

Unless the aggregated market nosedives in the near-term, it is probable that Ethereum will continue trading above these crucial levels.

Featured image from Shutterstock.

Charts from TradingView.