Japanese messaging giant LINE developing CBDC platform

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One More Crash Required Before Bitcoin Hits $20K: Analyst

Bitcoin

One More Crash Required Before Bitcoin Hits $20K: Analyst


Bitcoin remains at risk of crashing below $10,000 even as its long-term fundamentals look incredibly bullish.

The benchmark cryptocurrency could fall into the $8,000-8,500 area, according to a trade setup presented by a TradingView-based analyst. It showed BTC/USD in a “breakout zone” above historically relevant trendline resistance, now approaching a sell-off area defined by the $12-000-14,000 range.

The $12,000-14,000 area comes with a historical significance as resistance. It, on more than eight occasions, has capped BTC/USD from extending its upside momentum. Bulls turn cautious around it, leading to a drop in new long positions. That, in turn, paves the way for bears to increase short entries.

The upper green bar in the chart above shows higher bearish sentiment around the area.

Bitcoin, therefore, could stretch its upside momentum up until $14,000. Nevertheless, its rally may follow a sharp correction to the downside. Should that happen, the TradingView.com analyst sees the price crashing towards the lower $8,000s.

And he offered more than one technical outlook to explain his bearish bias.

Bearish BAT Formation

The analyst referred to one of his recent outlooks on Bitcoin, reiterating the same bearish correction towards $8Ks but based on a different technical pattern: BAT.

It is a classic retracement and continuation structure that occurs when a trend tentatively reverses its direction and continues on its original course. With that said, BTC/USD could continue trading towards the $12-14K area but would remain at risk of correcting lower below $10,000.

“If you could recall my last analysis which proposed immediate test on 12k zone after discovering potential BAT formation on BTC. This view remains very valid and we can count on it and wait for a possible retracement after the BAT target is achieved.”

Bitcoin at $20K

The analyst further added that a pullback towards $8,000 would bring ideal opportunities for investors with a long-term market outlook.

His chart envisioned a sharp rebound towards $20,000 as Bitcoin hit $8,000.

The prediction fell in line with what other fundamental analysts say about the cryptocurrency: That it would grow higher in the coming quarters as more and more investors pick it as their safe-haven against the Federal Reserve’s dovish policies.

The US central bank has vowed to keep interest rates near zero until 2023. It has also committed to purchase unlimited corporate and US government bonds. The policy risks sending yields on the long-term Treasuries below zero, making it unattractive for investors to hold bonds altogether.

Meanwhile, continuous injection of US dollars into the economy robs the greenback of its appeal of a global safe-haven. The same narrative also intends to help push Bitcoin higher because of its underlying scarcity as an asset.

Charted: Chainlink (LINK) Rejected $11, And It’s Vulnerable to a Drop Below $10.5

Chainlink (LINK) started a fresh increase, but it struggled to clear the $11.00 resistance. There is now a risk of a sharp decline below $10.50 if there is no break above $11.00.

  • Chainlink token price is struggling to gain momentum above $11.00 and $11.10 against the US dollar.
  • The price is still trading well above $10.50 and the 100 simple moving average (4-hours).
  • There was a break above a major contracting triangle with resistance near $10.65 on the 4-hours chart of the LINK/USD pair (data source from Kraken).
  • The pair could nosedive below $10.50 if it continues to struggle near $11.00.

Chainlink (LINK) Price is Facing Hurdles

After a test of the $11.80 resistance, there was a downside correction in chainlink (LINK) below $11.00. The price even broke the $10.50 support, but it remained well bid above the $10.25 support and the 100 simple moving average (4-hours).

A low is formed near $10.26 and the price is currently recovering higher. There was a break above a major contracting triangle with resistance near $10.65 on the 4-hours chart of the LINK/USD pair.

The pair broke the $10.80 resistance level, plus the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $11.82 high to $10.26 low. However, the price faced a strong resistance near the $11.00 and $11.10 levels.

Chainlink (LINK)

Source: LINKUSD on TradingView.com

It seems like there was a rejection near the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $11.82 high to $10.26 low. The price is currently moving lower and trading with a bearish angle below $10.85. The next support is near the $10.50 level.

The main support is near the $10.25 level and the 100 simple moving average (4-hours), below which there is a risk of a sharp decline. The next major support is seen near the $9.60 level.

Fresh Increase?

If chainlink’s price manages to stay above $10.50, there are chances of a clear break above the $11.00 resistance level. The bulls need to gain strength above $11.10 for a sustained upward move.

If they succeed, the price might even surpass the $11.50 level. The next major resistance is near the $11.80 zone, above which the bulls might aim a test of the $12.00 resistance in the near term.

Technical Indicators

4-hours MACD – The MACD for LINK/USD is now in the bearish zone.

4-hours RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for LINK/USD is declining and it is just below the 50 level.

Major Support Levels – $10.60, $10.50 and $10.25.

Major Resistance Levels – $11.00, $11.10 and $11.80.

TA: Ethereum Recovery Could Soon Fade If ETH Fails To Clear $385

Ethereum is slowly rising and trading well above $375 against the US Dollar. ETH price must clear the $385 resistance to continue higher in the near term.

  • Ethereum gained pace after it broke the $375 resistance level.
  • The price tested the $385 resistance and it is now trading the 100 hourly simple moving average.
  • There is a key bullish trend line forming with support near $375 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD (data feed via Kraken).
  • The pair could start a fresh decline below $375 if it fails to clear the $385 resistance.

Ethereum Price is Facing an Uphill Task

Ethereum started a decent upward move after it reclaimed the $370 level. ETH price broke the $375 resistance and it settled well above the 100 hourly simple moving average.

The bulls gained strength, resulting in a push above the $380 level. However, ether price failed to clear the key $385 resistance. A high is formed near $385 and the price started a downside correction.

There was a break below the $380 level, and the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent increase from the $373 swing low to $385 high. The price is now holding the $378 support level (a multi-touch zone). The next major support on the downside is near the $375 level.

Ethereum Price

Source: ETHUSD on TradingView.com

There is also a key bullish trend line forming with support near $375 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD. The trend line support is close to the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the recent increase from the $373 swing low to $385 high.

On the upside, the bulls are facing a strong resistance near $385. A clear break above the $385 resistance could open the doors for a push towards the $400 resistance level in the coming sessions.

Downside Break in ETH?

If Ethereum fails to clear the $385 resistance levels, it might continue to move down. An immediate support is near the $378 zone.

The main support is near the trend line and $375. A clear break below the $375 support level and the 100 hourly simple moving average might start a fresh decline. In the stated case, the price could revisit the $365 support zone.

Technical Indicators

Hourly MACDThe MACD for ETH/USD is slowly moving in the bearish zone.

Hourly RSIThe RSI for ETH/USD is now just above the 50 level.

Major Support Level – $375

Major Resistance Level – $385

Telecoms protocol from 1975 exploited to target 20 crypto executives

What can I do to prevent this in the future?

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If you are at an office or shared network, you can ask the network administrator to run a scan across the network looking for misconfigured or infected devices.

Bitcoin Breaks $11.8K on Jerome Powell Speech; Is Rally Sustainable?

Bitcoin

Bitcoin Breaks $11.8K on Jerome Powell Speech; Is Rally Sustainable?


A Jerome Powell speech on central bank digital currencies (CBDC) was enough to decouple Bitcoin from traditional asset markets.

The benchmark cryptocurrency surged above $11,800 in the hours leading up to the Federal Reserve chairman’s cautious remarks on CBDCs at a panel organized by the International Monetary Fund. At 0900 ET Monday, BTC/USD underwent a speculative jump from $11,523 to $11,650. One hour later, when Mr. Powell started his speech, the pair rested.

The next hour, however, it resumed its short-term uptrend by adding another $150 to it. Around noon ET, Bitcoin had established an intraday high at $11,833.

It was a standalone act. None of the indexes that formed a positive correlation with Bitcoin matches its ascent in early Monday hours. The S&P 500, for instance, jumped 0.90 percent after the New York opening bell but later pared all those gains to close 1.63 percent lower.

Bitcoin’s daily candle, on the other hand, logged a 2.14 percent intraday return.

Xi Jinping Vibes

The uptick in BTC/USD on Monday served as a reminiscent of a short-term upward trend in October 2019. Only that time, traders raised their bids for the pair after Xi Jinping, China’s premier, endorsed blockchain – Bitcoin’s underlying technology – in a public event.

BTC/USD climbed by more than 40 percent – from $7,430 to as much as $10,540 – before succumbing to a strong selling wave that followed later. The pair crashed by more than 39 percent when the China hype faded.

An imminent correction was a word of caution among many traders as they addressed the Bitcoin rally’s size and pace. A pseudonymous one said that he’d be cautiously waiting for the crypto to hold above $11,660 before opening any new bullish positions.

“If I lose [the support], [then] I’ll be looking to short down to 11.2k,” he added.

Ivan Liljeqvist, a Sweden-based market analyst, ran a poll to understand the consensus behind the next Bitcoin move. The results came mixed, with 47.7 percent voting in favor of correction towards $11,000.

What’s Next for Bitcoin

In the short-term, Bitcoin expects to retain its positive correlation with the US stock market. The cryptocurrency’s direct relationship with the S&P 500 has been erratic, as shown in the Skew chart below. It rises and falls consecutively, but remain intact on a medium-term outlook.

bitcoin, btcusd, btcusdt, xbtusd

Bitcoin-S&P 500 correlation expects to bounce back. Source: Skew

The reason is that every market is waiting for the second coronavirus stimulus package. Once the negotiations settle – macro analysts expect a deal by the November 3 presidential election – all the riskier assets would likely surge in tandem.

Bitcoin also anticipates reaching a new yearly high as the stimulus reduces the bids for the US dollar – and even as it gives the Fed adequate tools to continue its near-zero lending rate and its infinite bond-buying program.

Macro Investor Dan Tapiero on Crypto Adoption: Emerging Economies Ahead of Developed States

Macro Investor Dan Tapiero on Crypto Adoption: Emerging Economies Ahead of Developed States

Bitcoin and gold holder Dan Tapiero, says it is still early to talk of widespread crypto adoption as the proportion of users relative to the rest of the population remains low. Tapiero makes the remarks while referring to a study, which places Nigeria at top of the list of countries with the highest number of respondents that say they own or are using cryptocurrency.

Macro Investor Dan Tapiero on Crypto Adoption: Emerging Economies Ahead of Developed States

According to the study, 32% of surveyed Nigerians say they used or owned cryptocurrencies in 2020 while in Japan, which is last on the list, only 4% say they owned cryptos in 2020. The survey, which was conducted by Statista, shows that countries with emerging economies like Vietnam (21%) and South Africa (17%) have more respondents who say they used or owned cryptos in 2020. Spain (10%) is the only developed country where the percentage of respondents that own or used cryptocurrencies get to double-digit figures.

In the United States, which appeared to be the focus of Tapiero’s tweet, the percentage of respondents that confirm owning or using crypto is only 7%. In his tweet, Tapiero who is the Co-founder at 10T Holdings infers that the world is currently seeing the crypto which is “still at the birth of a new global asset class.” Some Twitter users were quick to query the methodology of the study and Tapeiro admits that “there are countries that belong on this list that are not listed.”

Still, another Twitter, Alexander Burgei insists that the “data is really clear” and that adoption is already happening but “only in dysfunctional countries, as a backup to devaluating currencies.” While adoption is already happening in some countries, the Twitter user says “it will not be real until it´s taken by the Western powers and China.”

Meanwhile, in an earlier tweet, Tapiero claims that “it is the beginning of the end for banks” and urges them to either “adapt or perish.”

He adds:

Time to pivot towards the digital asset ecosystem. Bitcoin is the pristine collateral at its centre. The whole new world now growing up alongside the legacy system.

Tapiero’s remarks come as fintech and payment firms continue to eat into the banks’ share of market capitalization. According to data shared by Tapiero on Twitter, fintech, and payment firms only accounted for less than 10% in 2010. This figure has grown to nearly 30% share of the market capitalization.

Macro Investor Dan Tapiero on Crypto Adoption: Emerging Economies Ahead of Developed States

There are expectations that this trend is set to continue and banks that fail to embrace emerging technologies will lose influence.

Do you think cryptocurrency adoption is happening faster in some regions than in others? Tell us your thoughts in the comments section below.

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Image Credits: Shutterstock, Pixabay, Wiki Commons

Uniswap’s first governance vote fails … despite 98% support

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TA: Bitcoin Bulls Back In Driver’s Seat, More Upsides Above $12K Likely

Bitcoin price is up over 2% and it broke the main $11,560 resistance against the US Dollar. BTC is now struggling near $11,800, but it is likely to continue higher.

  • Bitcoin is gaining momentum, and it broke the $11,500 and $11,560 resistance levels.
  • The price is currently testing the $11,800 resistance and it is well above the 100 hourly simple moving average.
  • There is a key contracting triangle forming with resistance near $11,750 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken).
  • The pair is likely to accelerate higher above $11,800 as long as it is above the $11,560 support.

Bitcoin Price Gains 2%

Bitcoin price remained stable above the $11,350 and $11,400 levels. As a result, BTC gained bullish momentum above the $11,500 and $11,560 resistance levels.

The price even climbed above the $11,700 level and the 100 hourly simple moving average to move into a positive zone. It traded to a new weekly high at $11,839 before it started a downside correction. There was a break below the $11,750 level.

Bitcoin is now trading below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent rally from the $11,425 low to $11,839 high. It seems like there is a key contracting triangle forming with resistance near $11,750 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair.

Bitcoin Price

Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

A successful break above the triangle resistance could increase the chances of a clear break above the $11,800 resistance. In the stated case, the price is likely to surge above the $12,000 resistance level in the near term. The next major resistance is near $12,200, followed by $12,500.

Downside Break in BTC?

If bitcoin fails to gain strength above $11,750 and $11,800 resistance levels, it could extend its downside correction. The first major support is near the $11,640 level since it is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent rally from the $11,425 low to $11,839 high.

The main support is now forming near the $11,560 level (the recent breakout zone) and a connecting bullish trend line on the same chart. Any further losses could lead the price towards $11,450 or the 100 hourly simple moving average.

Technical indicators:

Hourly MACD – The MACD is slowly moving in the bearish zone.

Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is still well above the 60 level, with a positive angle.

Major Support Levels – $11,640, followed by $11,560.

Major Resistance Levels – $11,750, $11,6800 and $12,000.

R3 Corda Network Set to Go DeFi With XDC Digital Currency

A group of former bankers building on R3’s public Corda Network are touting the first digital currency for that ecosystem, dubbed XDC. 

Announced Tuesday, the Cordite Society, a co-operative registered in the U.K., released the XDC crypto token on public Corda, the open-source version of R3’s network. The new regulation-friendly cryptocoin will open the door, say its creators at Cordite, to various decentralized finance (DeFi) applications running on Corda’s distributed ledger technology (DLT).

R3 began life as a pay-to-join DLT consortium of big banks, which over time realized the value of hosting a large developer community and created the open-source Corda Network alongside the commercial version of the software. 

In fact, the idea of a “Corda Coin” was floated at last year’s CordaCon, the annual developer gathering, but only as a research project at that time. Now a reality, the Cordite Society will be minting the first run of 1 million XDC to lubricate applications on Corda. This cooperative is taking advantage of existing U.K. legal structures for mutual societies, a provision also used by DeFi risk mitigation platform Nexus Mutual

“XDC is a digital currency in its own right,” said ex-RBS banker and Cordite CEO Richard Crook. “It is issued as an exchange token to Cordite Society members, and as it’s minted or created, will be evenly distributed amongst those cooperative society members.”

The XDC and Cordite Society announcement is timed to coincide with this year’s CordaCon event. R3 did not return requests for comment by press time.

Crook said membership for the newly-convened Cordite Society is now open, and members will vote on the rate of supply of XDC and other points of governance going forward. Firms participating in the Cordite decentralized autonomous organization (DAO) will have compliance baked in, Crook added, since R3 designed the Corda network such that each node represents a legal entity, identified by a trusted identity certificate. 

This ensures that XDC meets the G20-sanctioned Financial Action Task Force (FATF) standards on digital assets to deal with anti-money laundering (AML) risks, a challenge that Ethereum-based DeFi projects continue to be unable to address, Crook said. 

“Regulators have set the requirements for what a digital currency needs to be, and that’s exactly where XDC fits in,” said Crook. “It meets the requirements of most jurisdictions as a digital currency and is therefore a step ahead. We’re a next-generation Bitcoin or XRP.”

XDC DeFi

In addition, Crook said the XDC code will pave the way for things like central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) to run on Corda (especially since federal regulators in the U.S. recently announced that national banks can hold reserves for stablecoin issuers), and also allow for what he called “a cleaned-up” expansion of DeFi.

“Anything in finance needs to solve the know-your-customer identity problem out of the box, as well as provide privacy between the parties that are transacting,” said Crook. “With many DeFi projects to date, if the technology doesn’t solve that, they seemingly ignore those requirements and wait for regulators to give chase.”

The XDC system, with its reliance on the U.K.’s mutual societies legal structure, shows that the core tenets of DeFi are actually centuries old, said Crook.

“It takes us back to that ability for legal entities to come together and share equity or debt and work together for a common aim,” Crook said. “That’s why cooperatives were created in the first place. And that’s why we are showing that with XDC, you can mix the legal and the technology components to solve this DeFi requirement set.”

U.K.-based institutional crypto player BCB Prime Services (which works with Bitstamp, Coinbase, Galaxy and Kraken) will provide OTC liquidity and custody services for XDC.